12-04-2021

Markets weaker overnight in Far East despite jump in Alibaba which rallied 5% following the $2.8Bln fine from Chinese regulators re anti competitive practices. Clearly the consensus for a greater fine and this now puts the inquiry to bed.

US markets may be given a further boost today following the airing of an interview with Jay Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve. Powell described the US economy as being at an inflection point, with growth and new jobs about to accelerate. However he warned that new hot spots of covid infection could impede the recovery which underlined the importance of the vaccine roll out.

The hope is that the vaccination program will break the link between infections and hospitalisations whilst slowing the spread of the disease as evidence emerges that what is happening here in the UK.

Review

• FTSE +178 +2.65%
• DOW +647 +1.95%
• S&P +109 +2.71% N
• ASDQ +420 +3.11%
• DAX +127 +0.84%
• NIKKEI -86 -0.3%

Equity markets had another positive week, hitting record highs in US indices and the pan European Stoxx index.

Investors remain positive about the medium term outlook, looking past the end of the pandemic.

Friday was tougher for US markets as bond yields started to rise again

following the announcement of the regular upcoming auction of bonds.

Another concern for US markets is complacency and the overall level of optimism – any shift here could cause a set back in equities. Maybe Biden’s tax plans might be one of the possible causes.

UK markets had a strong week as the FTSE100 hit its highs for the year. Cyclical stocks and the fall in Sterling helped push the index higher.

Followers of UK plc will know the FTSE250, a better barometer of the health of the UK economy, has been nudging all time highs for the past week – rallying 3.5% last week - breaking the all time high from late December 2019.

EURUSD +1.37 +1.16% GBPUSD -1.16 -0.84% USDJPY -1.03 -0.93%

The US Dollar had showed signs of a turn down just before Easter. This move accelerated last week as traders reacted to the soothing words of the Federal Reserve following release of minutes from previous meeting.

Yields on US treasuries had backed down also in response but the mood altered Friday with a rise in yields again….Hence the bounce on Friday in the USD.

Gold +9 +0.52% UK OIL -1.61 -2.5% US OIL -1.89 -3.08%

Gold has had a good run, helped in part by the fall in the US Dollar over the past week or so. But like the US Dollar, Gold is showing signs of a pullback. Although it is worth noting that Gold did manage a higher high last week so the technical don’t look too bad.

It all depends on the US Dollar in the medium term.

Oil is becalmed for now following the reassessment of demand in the medium-term which caused the sell-off Mid-March.

Data / events

A busier week for data and events in this full week following the Easter break.

US banks will be in the spotlight with reports from JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup; Wells Fargo; Goldman Sachs.

Banks have been feasting on ideal conditions for investment banking deals. Expectations will be high so the outcome depends on how well these banks can match / beat forecasts.

For the UK, more normal life resumes today with further easing of the lockdown measures as non-essential shops and other businesses open.

Oh and pubs can serve drinks outside. To highlight the desperation that clearly many of us have been feeling, a pub in Sheffield opened its garden last night and was packed (with no spare tables). Midnight in Sheffield at below zero degrees temperature – what’s there not to like?

Boris Johnson reminds us all to be responsible – I wonder how many will listen to that advice?

Monday

US                               Jay Powell speaking about the economy on 60 Minutes program. Can effect markets – with sensitivity towards bond yields and tax rise implications.

US                               Not something we would ever highlight but results of 10- year bond auction announced. Further stress on yields?

Tuesday

US                               CPI - Consumer Price Index. Still remaining in check. Any uptick will likely be seized up by bond traders and then equity traders!

Another bounce as US consumers enjoy the $1,400 windfall via the fiscal aid package provided by the Biden administration.

Wednesday

NZ                               RBNZ monthly policy meeting. No change from the NZ central. Bank likely follow on from last month’s comments that global and domestic economic conditions were not changing enough to warrant a change in monetary policy.

Eurozone                  ECB President Lagarde due to speak at Reuters hosted event. Not sure of topic but Lagarde tends to tread a careful line with comments relating to economic policy.

US                               Not be outdone, Powell is speaking again. This time at the Economic Club of Washington. Again any comments on monetary policy will tend to be seized upon.

Thursday

US                               Retail sales. 4.7% expected – a huge jump as US consumers enjoy the $1,400 windfall via the fiscal aid package provided by the Biden administration.

US                               Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. A pull back from March’s

strong reading.

Friday

US                               Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment reading. Climbing back to pre-pandemic days.

People are often asking me to call a live trade in our free introductory events, and whilst that isn’t the purpose of these screenshare sessions, it is something that I like to do from time to time.

This week, I was teaching the merits of the 4-hour timeframe, which I consider extremely underrated by many home traders.

During the workshop, I also explained some of the details for my 4-hour chart strategy called S4. It is looking at turning points that are confirmed by strong trends.

I ran the Trendsignal scanning tool which identified Gold as an upcoming opportunity that would be triggering in the next few minutes.

The trade was confirmed at 2pm on Tuesday, and has since gone on to fall over 200 points. Please see the chart below:

This is a great example of a Short trade, inline with the dominant trends of the market.

Looking at the Annotations on the chart, we can see the “Sell trade” was inline with a down trend on the Daily (DT) and Weekly (WT) timeframes, a descending chart pattern (CP) and the intermediate trend (orange line).

It was showing all the hallmarks of a strong continuance of an established downtrend. And here we are now, some 200 points lower.

This is a great trade, but it wasn’t the only popular market to trigger an opportunity that day.

This chart on EUR/USD shows another short opportunity, triggering at 6pm. Again, this reversal and turn lower is supported by a down trend on the Weekly timeframe and the intermediate trend too. In addition, the RED arrow gives a clear marker for some of our favourite 4-hour chart opportunities, which works as a great confidence builder for new traders.

Yes, this hasn’t moved to the same extent as Gold, but with a tighter stop, the potential gain is arguably even more attractive.

What is S4

The S4 strategy is a part of the Trendsignal plus training programme, and compliments the once-a-day strategies that are also available on the course. It can be applied to FX, Indices and Commodities to help identify Long and Short opportunities, with a typical trade duration of 4 hours to 3 days – ideal for a second income and those with limited time to analyse charts.

The Trendsignal Plus Course is available now for purchase and includes strategies, scanning tools, comprehensive training and live coaching. Call +44 (0)1234 757553 if you are interested in enrolling.

Happy trading

Adrian Buthee
Head of Trading

I had to give an update on EURUSD for the D1 Accelerator strategy which continues to pick up fantasitic gains for traders. Yesterday we hit target for the 10th winning trade in a row since October. Nice bite size winners, all hitting target within 3 days. And that’s the point of the strategy. And at approx. 40 pips win per trade, that’s 400 pips on just this one market.

Very strong morning on the Dax, all starting from a pre-market buy at 7:04 – too early for trading really, but it sets the scene for an extremely strong session, after the market opens. Another buy at 7.44 before we hit our Trade of the Day at 9:00am. A text book continuation trade, hitting the trailing stop for a 3:1 profit of approx. 50 points. With a 1% risk, that’s a potential 3% profit in 40 minutes.

The Stock indices continue to move to positive territory as we see the Dax move to record highs this week. All in all, a very strong risk-on week for the stock market and US Dollar weakness, and Trendsignal traders saw that from the opportunities created. Adrian explains this latest bacth of Stock index trades in today’s video; looking at buy trades on the FTSE100, GER30, US30 and SPK500 indices, all rallying considerably over the following 2-3 days after the Sniper signal was generated. A total movement of over 1600 points from a very clear rules based strategy.

As the US Dollar continue to slide, the D1 Accelerator strategy continue to pick up great winning trades. In this video, Adrian Buthee review’s the last 4 buy trades and how the strategy looks for quick scalps off the Daily chart, for trades lasting 1 to 3 days. 4 winning trades over the past few weeks, picking up at least 160 point profit from a simple to use, rules based strategy

Another great Buy trade on the AUD/JPD for the D1 (Daily Chart) Accelerator strategy. We have had 3 buys in the last 3 weeks, all quickly hitting target and in this video Adrian reviews the opportunities and the merits of each one, including looking at trends, momentum, turning points and chart patterns.

Today’s highlights included Friday’s and today’s pick up in Tech stocks as the equity markets rebound from the 4^th negative week in a row. Covid infections are on the increase and the US continues in their stalemate over the next Federal stimulus package to be agreed between the Democrats and Republicans. This week offers the first of 3 live TV debates between Trump and Biden, with Biden remaining ahead in the polls. News on Trump paying little-to-no tax over the past 17 years is also likely to feature strongly. How will a Biden win affect the markets? We go through all these points in today’s Podcast.

Today’s highlights included Oracle’s purchase of TikTok US, Hard Brexit worries and the impact on GBP and UK Stocks, Softbank’s tech positions, Oil weakness, GBP weakness, EUR strength and Netflix becoming the biggest spender of new content.

In today’s Week Ahead, Adrian and Jerry review the main events that will impact Forex and Stock markets, thereby creating the movement and the opportunity for traders. A week full of economic and corporate releases. Main events include the European Central Bank’s monetary policy meeting, Bank of Canada’s policy meeting, Brexit negotiations and US PPI and CPI data announcements, in what is a quieter week for economic data releases.

In today’s Podcast Adrian and Jerry review the forex, stock and commodity markets and the main events that are creating the movement. Today’s highlights included the announcement that Softbank have been building HUGE long positions in the Tech stocks, fuelling rising prices, creating risk for position holders who looked to take profits, creating the biggest Nasdaq fall since March. We look at Tesla and Apple’s share prices, the stock market volatility, Oil’s 8% fall and the movement or rather lack of a resulting rally in the USD.

In today’s Week Ahead, Adrian and Jerry review the main events that will impact Forex and Stock markets, thereby creating the movement and the opportunity for traders. A week full of economic and corporate releases. Main events include the Jackson Hole Symposium, the Republican National Convention (where Donald Trump will accept the nomination to run for a second term) and a number of Economic data updates.

In today’s Week Ahead, Adrian and Jerry review the main events that will impact Forex and Stock markets, thereby creating the movement and the opportunity for traders. A week full of economic and corporate releases. Main events include Brexit talks, FOMC minutes, JMMC and OPEC meeting (for oil traders) and a full line-up European PMI data for both the services and manufacturing sectors.

In today’s Podcast Adrian and Jerry review the forex, stock and commodity markets and the main events that are creating the movement. In today’s session we reviewed the big fall in Gold last week after it broke through $2000. The markets also feel a little like August, a bit quieter, although right now that is definitely a relative term. FX and Index movement is also discussed after the recent PBOC bank injection of liquidity.