">

Just focussing on the Sniper strategy (disks on the chart), we can see 5 trades. 2 with the trend and 3 counter-trend. Trades that are moving with the longer term trend are usually the safest and produce the best and most consistent returns.  

And counter-trend opportunities can be a little more erratic. 

What I am talking about here is moving from a system follower to someone who can out-perform, improve their results and reduce the number of loss making trades. 

Same thing with any golfer… the way we score better, is by playing fewer bad shots – not by playing more good shots. Look after the bad shots and the good shots look after themselves. 

This clever pattern will help you and our Trendsignal members to do just that.  

Remember: Trendsignal is an award-winning trading educator. We provide home traders with trading systems, trading strategies and expert coaching to help them achieve great results.   

As explained in the video, some exceptional trades here, actionable even by a new trader… if you have the right technology. 

So check my video out, and I hope it helps you achieve better results.  

Happy trading 

Adrian Buthee 
Head of Trading 

And as our Head Trader, Adrian Buthee explains in this 2-minute video, the strategy has significantly outperformed the Dow over the past 5 years.

If you’re available for an hour on Thursday, come to Adrian’s free online session to see the strategy in action.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar continues to slip versus other major currencies as risk-on theme continues.

Review of last week’s key action

FTSE -29 -0.41% DOW +382 +1.29% S&P +76 +1.64% NASDQ +193 +1.29% DAX -44 -0.28% NIKKEI -264 -0.91% Hang Seng +795 +3.14%

Despite the below consensus Chinese GDP data at the start of last week, overall, the data last week was positive.

Meanwhile, the PMI data from most western economies was better than the consensus with stand-out data from both the UK and US.

However, the Eurozone services sector suffered an unexpected fall which is likely due to the spike in energy and general commodity prices brought about by these global supply bottlenecks that all economies are experiencing.

News last Friday from Evergrande, the massively indebted Chinese property development group, helped markets to recover losses from the start of last week.

Evergrande managed to pay at the eleventh hour the missed interest payment on foreign US Dollar bonds which has given some very short-term relief to the Hong Kong market although the debt remains and so does the risk that the company could default without offloading some assets.

However, equity markets continue to believe what central bankers are telling us about the prospects for inflation.

Here in the UK, analysts are now pricing in a near 80% probability of a rate rise before Christmas.

There has been some criticism of the Bank of England’s aggressive market speak with the Economist calling for the bank to pause with any rate rise.

An interesting article in the FT highlights how investors view what Central Banks are up to.

The yield on the two-year UK gilt and 2-year treasury (US sovereign debt) have risen sharply in the last two months reflecting the likelihood of a start in the tightening cycle in both the UK and US.

In the UK, 2-year gilts are now yielding 0.7% - not much to write home about – but just two months ago they were 0.1%.

It’s a similar picture in the US, where 2-year bond yields are at 0.49% having risen from 0.25%.

However, if we look further along the yield curve or duration, we see that the yield on long term bonds in both markets have not moved much at all which suggests that the market suspects that inflation will be tamed quickly.

Remember that long term bond yields are very sensitive to the corrosive effects of inflation.

So, put it another way – investors are currently implying that that both the BoE and Federal Reserve could be making a policy error in raising rates and tapering QE.

This means, these central banks could end up choking off some of the post pandemic recovery risking stagflation in the medium term and the likelihood that these rate rises would have to be reversed.

Of course, these moves in the bond markets could change again should inflation really take hold.

EURUSD +0.49 +0.42 GBPUSD Unch USDJPY -0.23 -0.2%

Little action in the forex market last week, with the US Dollar losing more of its gains since early September in anticipating of the start to QE tapering.

Gold +24 +1.35% UK OIL +1.04 +1.23% US OIL +1.7 +2.06%

Oil continued its relentless rise, adding another $1 from the previous week.

The Yen experienced some profit taking halting the slide from the previous week although the energy squeeze will have a direct impact on Japan which has to import significant quantities of oil and gas.

Last Tuesday’s successful launch of the Proshares Bitcoin Strategy ETF, to give it its full name, gave another boost to Bitcoin and other Cryptos.

The Bitcoin ETF, or BITO as it’s called, attracted more than $1 Bln from investors making it one of the fastest growing ETFs.

Data / events for the week ahead

ECB, BoC & BoJ policy meetings, the UK budget, and US GDP data to look forward to.

Monday

Germany German IFO business climate. Large survey of manufacturers and retailers. Gradually slipping from levels four months ago.

Tuesday

Wednesday

Japan Bank of Japan policy meeting. Following upgrade in outlook the bank is expected to make no change to official rates.

UK UK’s Autumn Statement presented by Chancellor Rishi Sunak. Almost all the policy announcements seem to have been trailed ahead of the announcements in parliament so markets will probably have little in the way of any meaningful surprises.

Canada Bank of Canada – no change ahead of FED’s FOMC policy meeting in early November.

US Core Durable Goods orders. Still on the rise but slowing.

Thursday

Eurozone ECB policy meeting. Whilst investors have started to price in a slight rise in Eurozone rates by end of 2022, the likelihood of anything happening in the short to medium term is very low. Markets are predicting the Eurozone rates will increase by 0.1% by the end of 2022.

Hardly noteworthy – actually, noteworthy for how dovish investors are about prospects for a rate rise.

Most analysts expect the ECB to maintain a more dovish approach, contrary to what the BoE have been saying. They can’t both be right, or can they??

US GDP data.

Friday

US Revised University of Michigan Consumer sentiment. Stabilising??

US Chicago PMI – Still falling.

So, that’s about it for the week ahead.

I’ll be back in touch with more news and views on trading the markets…

In the meantime, remember to tune into our stock market trading session on Thursday at 12.30pm.

It’s free to attend, but places are limited. So, if you fancy coming along, don’t delay – get your free pass here.

If we continue to get strength in the US stock market in the weeks ahead, the small group of well-known stocks we focus on look well placed to benefit.

And with our specially designed indicators, you’ll know the best time to enter for potential profits.

Check out the strategy in our Momentum Stocks session.

Click here to get your FREE place in the webinar.

Regards,

Jerry Miller

Managing Director

Trendsignal

And that’s great news for buyers of momentum stocks like the ones we trade in our Momentum Stocks strategy.

But whilst stocks have recovered, bond prices have fallen further as yields increase ahead of the likely start of tapering by the Fed in early November.

Yields on the 10-year treasury have jumped from 1.35% a month ago to 1.61% now.

The jump in global energy costs have also rattled investors as concerns mount that the jump in commodity prices could have a more longer lasting effect on inflation.

It’s not just in the US either. Bonds yields have been on the rise in all developed and developing countries as supply bottlenecks have been exacerbated further with “buying at any cost” from the Chinese for energy supplies.

Explainer: Why do bond yields matter?

Governments and businesses issue bonds to finance their operations. The amount borrowed has an annual coupon, or interest rate, that is paid by the issuer to the owner of the bond.

If the demand for Bonds starts to reduce and inflation picks up – as discussed inflation is really the enemy of bonds – then the return or yield must rise to compensate those holders.

So, if yields rise, it costs more for issuers – that’s governments and businesses – to raise capital which has a direct impact of their operations by raising financing costs.

Of course, that is one of the reasons why central banks carried out QE, the active purchases of bonds from the marketplace to lower borrowing costs and inject huge sums of cash into the financial system.

Here in the UK, energy prices have been in the headlines for three weeks now as the steel sector and other large consumers start to feel the effects of record high gas prices, which have increased tenfold in some cases.

Investors were concerned that the UK could suffer an imminent rise in interest rates just when growth was looking vulnerable in the wake of these price shocks and supply bottlenecks.

Like in the US, 10-year bond yields here in the UK have also been caught up in the global rose in bond yields with yields jumping to 1.16% from 0.65% a month ago.

Review of last week’s key action

FTSE +68 +1% DOW +419 +1.22% S&P +34 +0.8% NASDQ unch DAX +47 +0.33% NIKKEI -722 -2.5% Hang Seng +262 +1.07%

Equities recovered their vigour mid-week.

But on Friday, US Non-Farm payrolls disappointed, with just 194K jobs created against an expectation of 500K.

The previous month’s figure was revised up 135K jobs, but it was still a miss of 165K jobs.

Despite the poor headline number, analysts seem to think that the report contained enough positives, such as the drop in the unemployment rate to 4.8% and the upward revision of last month’s number by 130K, to encourage the Fed to start the tapering process in their November meet.

EURUSD -0.22 -0.2% GBPUSD +0.68 +09.5% USDJPY +1.15 +1.03%

The US Dollar nudged further higher last week and, like equities, slipped a little on Friday following the underwhelming NFP data.

Sterling continued to recover the losses from the start of the month as analysts weighed up the prospects of higher rates and the talk of stagflation.

Gold unch UK OIL +3.33 +4.2% US OIL +3.78 +5%

Despite pressure being exerted on OPEC by Biden administration, the OPEC cartel did not move on its planned production. The problem consumers have now is the spill over effect from Natural Gas.

The price lats week for natural gas is the equivalent of $200 per barrel for oil so you can see why any consumer who could switch to crude would do!

Gold made a small increase early on last week, but the stronger US Dollar reversed those gains for the metal to end up unchanged largely on the week

Data / events for the week ahead

Calendar of data release is usually quieter the week after the US employment data – which is the case this week.

The key data, in light of a jump in energy prices and these supply bottlenecks, will be the US CPI (inflation) reading.

Also, the usual smattering of central bank speakers which seem largely to be concentrated from the US rate setting committee, the FOMC.

The UK’s relationship with the EU will occupy the front pages as the Norther Ireland protocol.

Monday

US US banks shut today in observance of Columbus Day, but most businesses and markets remain open; although liquidity will be lower in FX and bonds.

Tuesday

Germany ZEW economic Sentiment. Another dent as this institutional investor survey is expected to fall again for the fourth consecutive month…

US FOMC Member Clarida speaking at event about the economic outlook and monetary policy at an online event hosted by the Institute of International Finance. Could be interesting when Q & A starts.

Wednesday

US CPI / inflation reading. Key release of the week in light of heightened market angst. We already know inflation is at a level that warrants the start of the Fed’s QE tapering. But how high will inflation go?

Bonds very sensitive to a bigger jump than consensus.

US FOMC minutes from September meeting. Investors will be keen to glean any information about the QE tapering that is likely to be announced at the 2/3rd November meeting.

Thursday

US Core PPI – producer Price Index. Measure the costs of good and services going into production. A leading indicator to CPI or inflation.

US Crude oil inventories. Delayed a day due to Columbus Day from Monday

Friday

US Core Retail sales – a pullback from last months, as sales ebb and flow since April.

US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment – signs of a modest recovery

So, that’s about it for the week ahead.

I’ll be back in touch with more news and views on trading the markets…

In the meantime, check out our stock market trading webinar.

As we’ve seen, stock markets are showing strength after the tough times in September.

And that means good opportunities for our Momentum Stocks Strategy.

Check out the strategy in our Momentum Stocks session.

Click here to get your FREE place in the webinar.

Regards,

Jerry Miller

Managing Director

Trendsignal

In the meantime, check out our stock market trading webinar.

Despite weakness in stock market indices, there are still decent trading opportunities to be found in individual stocks showing positive momentum.

We’ll reveal our strategy in our Momentum Stocks webinar this Thursday at 12.30pm.

Click here to get your FREE place in the webinar.

Regards,

Jerry Miller

Managing Director

Trendsignal

If you can spare an hour today at 7pm, check out the free webinar Adrian is hosting.

He’ll be focusing on a strategy we use to trade individual company shares.

Primarily, we focus on Dow Jones 30 stocks – because we’ve found they offer the most opportunities.

But you can also use it to spot high-probability trades on other stocks, including UK-listed ones.

I think you’ll love the simplicity and effectiveness of this strategy.

Going for modest 5% returns on each trade, we’ve achieved a cumulative return of 156% in the first six months of the year.

Putting that in perspective, had you followed every trade identified in the period, you could have turned a £1,000 trading account into £2,560 in just six months.

And you’ll be surprised how simple it is to use, with the help of our award-winning trade identification software.

See it in action – for free – in this 60-minute online session today.

Meanwhile, let’s look at what’s been happening in the markets... and what we can expect this week…

Mixed signals in the US

US and global markets weathered the FOMC minutes last Wednesday which did not ring any alarm bells.

The minutes showed that the rate setting committee was debating whether to start tapering the bond purchase program sooner because of the stronger economic rebound and outlook.

Counter that with some signs that Data has started to soften in the US and leading indicators in the EU suggesting a potential slowdown in economic activity. The German ZEW survey of institutional investors and analysts posted the weakest reading in 54 months.

News that the Delta covid variant is taking hold in parts of the EU and US (NY state has seen infection rates double in two weeks) may start to play on investors’ minds in the coming days.

Germany advised its citizens not to travel to Spain which now has the highest infection rate in mainland Europe, knocking Portugal off the top spot.

Additional restrictions are being reimposed in a number of member states as the more infectious Delta variant becomes dominant.

In the last week, the European centre for Disease Control said that the infection rate had jumped 34% to 51.6 per 100,000.

Review of last week’s key action

FTSE unchanged DOW +83 (+0.25%) S&P +17 (+0.4%) NASDQ +62 (+0.43%) DAX +37 (+0.24%) NIKKEI –842 (-2.93%)

A quieter week on global markets last week.

A week and a half ago the US reported weaker manufacturing PMI, albeit still quite a hot reading.

Then last week the Services PMI underwhelmed although again with a reading at 60 which is still hot.

The FOMC minutes suggests that the debate about tapering QE will continue although the Fed said the “substantial further progress” in the economic conditions had still not been met.

EURUSD unchanged GBPUSD +0.78 (+0.56%) USDJPY -0.90 (-0.8%)

The US Dollar gave up some ground last week following the FOMC minutes which soothed the markets and made clear rates remain on hold.

Despite weaker data last Friday on Industrial production and manufacturing, Sterling picked up some lost ground from the previous week as the UK heads towards an end to all lockdown restrictions from July 19th.

Gold +15 (+0.84%) UK OIL -90.5 (-0.65%) US OIL +0.42 (+0.56%) Bitcoin unchanged

Gold responded to the modest slide in the US dollar last week, but moves were measured. The gains did little to recover the dramatic falls from June though.

A failure of OPEC to agree a production increase was a double-edged sword for the price.

Without an agreement to raise production, the price initially bounced but concerns are now mounting over the disunity with the cartel and its ability to manage prices.

Reports suggest the UAE had effectively sunk the Saudi deal to raise production following a near 50% jump in prices so far this year.

Data / events for the week ahead

A busier week this week for key economic releases and events.

Plus, we have a splurge of US Q2 earnings from US companies being released this week, starting with the banks.

CNBC expands:

“It’s the countdown to the second-quarter earnings season.

“The big banks dominate the calendar in coming days, with JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Bank of America all reporting on their recent quarter.

“Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, said investors should brace themselves — this one will be a doozy.

“I think what we’re going to be seeing is the second-best year-on-year quarterly gain in the last 25 years, second only to what we saw in the fourth quarter of 2009, since S&P 500 earnings are expected to be almost 61% this quarter,” Stovall told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Friday.

Could be great news for our Momentum Stocks strategy which focuses on trading big US stocks.

To learn more about the strategy, tune in to Adrian’s free webinar.

Monday

No major releases today

Tuesday

US Another nervous wait for US inflation reading. A month on month reading of core prices is expected at +0.4% whilst the annual inflation rate is expected at 4.9% compared to last year’s June reading.

If the rate comes in higher, as did May’s reading reported last month, then markets may stutter. US Dollar, bonds and equities sensitive.

Wednesday

UK CPI data. Inflation expected to remain at elevated levels as commodity prices remain firm. GBP sensitive.

US PPI data. Cost of goods / services going into production. The jump in the PPI over past 6 months looks set to continue.

Canada BoC rate decision. No change in rates or policy. Bank remains cautiously optimistic but too soon for a policy change.

US Jay Powell due to testify on the Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report before the House Financial Services Committee. Part of two-day testimony.

Thursday

China Q2 GDP reading – less hot as economic activity pulls back from the strong q1 reading.

Friday

Japan BoJ policy meeting. Tougher outlook in Japan as the Covid infection surges in major cities, including Tokyo where the Olympic gains kicks off in two weeks. No change in rates expected.

All eyes on Q2 results

It’s the banks that release first with expectations for a bumper set of results.

The FT reports that companies listed on the S&P500 index are forecast to report earnings-per-share growth of 63% for Q2 – that follows hot on the heels of 52.5% jump in Q1 earnings compared to a year ago.

An increase of 63% in EPS would be the biggest jump since the aftermath of the financial crisis in 2009.

Key results this week are.

Tuesday Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan

Wednesday Bank of America, Citigroup

Thursday Morgan Stanley, BNY Mellon

So, that’s about it for the week ahead.

I’ll be back in touch with more news and views on trading the markets…

In the meantime, check out our Adrian’s stock market trading webinar.

It’s free to attend and there are different times to choose from.

Click here to get your place.

Regards,

Jerry Miller

Managing Director

Trendsignal

Before we do that, take a second to grab your place at our Momentum Stocks webinar.

It’s free to attend and we’re seeing great results from trading some of the world’s best-known stocks with a strategy that’s outperforming the Dow Jones.

I think you’ll love the simplicity and effectiveness of this strategy.

OK, let’s get to the markets...

US closed for Independence Day

In the US, it’s Independence Day celebrations today so all US markets closed.

Movements will therefore be slightly more restricted.

But also bear in mind with the US closed, that any unexpected news could see greater moves than would otherwise be the case.

Far East markets were lower overnight with the Nikkei down 0.6% whilst Chinese indices were mixed.

Global markets failed to respond to the rally in US equities after Europe shut Friday.

But the Dow Jones is within spitting distance of its record high set on 10^th May.

If it can break that, then there could be another big leg higher.

That would be great news for our Momentum Stocks strategy that focuses on Dow stocks and rides them for bursts of momentum.

NOTE: Check out how we’re trading Dow stocks in our FREE webinar on this stock market trading strategy. Register here.

Review of last week’s key action

FTSE -12 -0.2% DOW +352 +1% NASDQ +279 +1.94% DAX +42 +0.27% NIKKEI -283 -0.97%

Another record closing high on US equities last Friday as employment data came in better than expected.

The addition of 850,000 new jobs in June was 125K more than expected but not so hot that it might push the Fed to react in a negative way (i.e. by raising interest rates).

The last quarter and half year finished last Wednesday with the broad- based S&P500 going out with the fifth straight monthly gain – a record on each occasion.

The current run of seven straight daily gains for the S&P is its best winning run since 1997.

Despite this record run, there are signs that some investors are getting a little nervous with the extent of the moves in the first 6 months of the year.

The skew index, as reported in the FT last week, measures the difference between the cost of using options to protect against a big market fall (put) versus the right to benefit from a rally (call).

This difference has hit record highs which implies fear is greater than the greed factor.

This is not the same as the VIX which simples measures the aggregate of individual at-the-money volatilities across all options.

The FTSE had a lacklustre week as did other European indices – in part due to the rebound in GBP and the Euro versus the US Dollar.

Perhaps the bid by Fortress for Morrisons will fire up the food retailing sector.

EURUSD -0.71 -0.6% GBPUSD -0.45 -0.32% USDJPY +0.23 +0.2%

The Euro finished lower against the US Dollar and Sterling in the first half of the year, contrary to most analysts’ expectations.

The focus on the reflation trade and jump in bond yields caught some investors out as concern mounted over the surge in inflation in western economies.

The Fed applied its comfort blanket to good effect as bond yields backed off but the US Dollar has not fallen back to levels seen at the start of the year.

Gold +6 +0.34% UK OIL UNCH US OIL +1.12 +1.51% Bitcoin +2,200 +7%

Gold had a shocker of a month in June as the jump in the USD resulted in a sharp sell-off as gold slumped $137 or 7.2%.

Despite the jump in inflation across developed economies, central bankers are all convinced that it is only temporary and will reverse – not something that Gold fans want to hear.

Oil ended unchanged last week following the inconclusive end to the Opec meeting last Thursday / Friday.

Demand remains strong, hence why crude is still close to a three year high but Opec failed to agree on an increase in the cartel’s production.

As a result OPEC will meet again today (Monday) by videoconference to address some members concerns.

Bitcoin settled down last week with little negative news.

Buyers pushed Bitcoin back to the middle of its recent trading range between 30,000 and 40,000.

Data / events for the week ahead

FOMC (rate setting committee of the federal Reserve in the US) minutes are probably the highlight of the week.

Monday

US Markets closed in observance of Independence Day celebrations.

OPEC Another round of talks between Opec members to agree production increases.

Tuesday

Australia Monthly policy meeting of RBA. Despite the renewed lockdown for almost half the population, the central bank is likely to reduce some of the emergency economic stimulus measures as the Australian economy powers ahead.

Analysts do not expect a pre-emptive move in rates as the governor of the central bank wants to avoid a rally in the Aussie dollar.

Expect AUD crosses to be sensitive to the news although by the time we are awake the news will be a couple of hours old.

Germany ZEW economic sentiment. A survey of institutional investors and analysts. Optimism has been building for months but some signs this may be slowing. Consensus is for 75 which would be lowest level for three months. Euro / Euro equities sensitive.

US ISM Services. A survey of purchasing managers in the services sector, which dominates the economy. Anything above 50 means sector is expanding. The reading has been above 60 for past 3 months which suggest its red hot. Another 60+ reading expected.

Wednesday

EU Update to economic forecasts for EU member states, with upgrades expected as economies recover ground post pandemic.

US FOMC minutes. Release of minutes from the last FOMC meeting.

The committee surprised markets by signalling a policy shift suggesting that the first interest rate rises would be in 2023 rather than 2024 as previously advised.

So, the markets will have a chance to find out what was behind the committee’s thinking. USD and equities will be sensitive to this release.

Following the last meeting on June 16th equities went into a tail spin for a few days but recovered sharply the following week as Fed officials sounded more dovish about rates.

Thursday

US Crude oil inventories – a day late due to federal holiday on Monday

G20 Finance ministers and central bankers meeting for 2 days – remotely.

Friday

UK, Eurozone Central bankers speaking at Global Forum on Productivity, in Venice.

So, that’s about it for the week ahead.

I’ll be back in touch with more news and views on trading the markets…

In the meantime, check out our free stock market trading webinar.

It’s free to attend and there are different times to choose from.

Click here to get your place.

Regards,

Jerry Miller

Managing Director

Trendsignal

First, why not take a moment to book a place at our free stock trading session… click here to register.

You’ll learn more about how we’re beating the Dow Jones with our Momentum Stocks strategy.

And given how markets are moving right now… it’s a great time to be trading stocks with positive momentum.

Let me show you what I mean.

Stock markets bounce back

This coming Wednesday marks the end of H1.

With US stock markets posting record highs and with other markets benefiting from the reflation trade, it’s been an extraordinary first half of the year.

Investors continue to enjoy great returns as companies recover from the effects of the pandemic.

Let’s look at last week’s moves.

Following a poor performance, the previous week, US equities had their best week since February following the infrastructure spending deal announced by the Biden administration.

Forget about the Fed and inflation, all eyes were on this infrastructure spending bill worth $1.2 TRILLION.

The announcement pushed up financial, energy and industrial stocks resulting in record closes across major US indices.

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq both hit all-time highs on Friday…

And the Dow Jones is homing in on its own record set on 10^th May.

That creates news for our Momentum Stocks strategy that focuses on Dow stocks and rides them for bursts of momentum.

NOTE: Check out how we’re trading Dow stocks in our FREE webinar on this stock market trading strategy. Register here.

Review of last week’s key action

FTSE +118 +1.69% DOW +1,143 +3.44% NASDQ +330 +2.35% DAX +167 +1.08% NIKKEI -651 -2.2%

So, US indices made record highs last week with both the Nasdaq and S&P closing at record levels on Friday.

Remember how inflation was all that mattered a couple of weeks ago...

But that been put aside for now as central banks expect this inflationary spike to be transitory.

And so investors bought US stocks like crazy.

Other global indices responded although in more muted fashion.

The spreading Covid Delta variant could well put a dampener on some of the economies where the vaccine roll-out has been slow.

UK shares also had a better following the MPC update on Thursday.

Some speculation built about rate rises early next year.

But this balloon soon burst as the MPC regarded current price pressures as temporary and likely to subside by year end.

Much the same as the Fed, then.

This seems to be the common view amongst central bankers now.

Let us hope they are right.

Sterling slipped on the news – falling against both the Euro and the USD almost immediately following the MPC’s statement, which is what you might expect.

EURUSD +0.72 +0.6% GBPUSD +0.69 +0.5% USDJPY +0.57 +0.52%

The US Dollar slipped on exchanges last week following the Fed’s calm response to the spike in inflation which the bank regards as temporary – for another few months before price rises ease into the year end.

As just mentioned, Sterling lost ground it made earlier in the week following the MPC statement.

Gold +17 +1% UK OIL +2.88 +3.9% US OIL +2.56 +3.6% Bitcoin -3,886 –10.87%

Gold made little headway last week despite the modest fall in the US Dollar.

The precious metal fell sharply the previous week but did not even manage a dead cat bounce.

Perhaps comments from the Fed about the transient nature of the inflation spike left little good news for Gold to focus on. Typically, gold is regarded as a hedge against inflation.

The world’s oil markets continue to surge higher as the world’s markets continue to recover post pandemic. Speculation continues to mount about $100 per barrel as supplies remain tight whilst demand continues to pick up.

Last week’s data from the Energy Information Administration showed another large draw down in stocks – a situation that has been developing since early April.

Bitcoin continues its roller coaster ride, with some big moves last week.

It was down 16% over Monday and Tuesday.

The cause this time was the announcement from China clamping down on Bitcoin mining activities and cryptocurrency trading.

Despite the news, Bitcoin and other Cryptos have recovered some of this lost ground over the weekend.

Cryptos remain one of the most exciting markets for traders and that doesn’t look like changing any time soon.

Data / events for the week ahead

There will be much focus on the end of the week.

We have the first Friday of the new month which means it’s US employment data release – or Non-Farm Payroll as we call it.

Monday

No impactful data today

Tuesday

US Conference Board release of consumer confidence. Another bounce…

Wednesday

China Manufacturing PMI. Holding above 50 but activity slowing.

Eurozone Flash Consumer Price Index (CPI) readings. May’s jump was the first time inflation had exceeded the ECB’s target in 2 years.

Price pressures have continued to build and will do so for the remainder of the year… with the usual caveats about a potential 3rd wave with the Covid delta variant.

The ECB, in common with other central banks, seems happy to accept higher prices and higher wages, in the belief that price pressures will wane with inflation expected to fall back to 1.4% in 2023.

ADP Nonfarm employment change.

Thursday

OPEC. Regular OPEC – JMMC policy meeting. Smugness all round.

US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Still hot…

UK BoE Governor Bailey speaking at Mansion House. Could be interesting for comments on inflation.

Friday

US Non-Farm Payroll. Data over the last two months has been surprisingly weak and well below the consensus.

The question is, will the pace of job creation accelerate in June?

Consensus is for another 700K new jobs. The market seems so resilient and seemed less concerned about the lack of jobs growth in April and May. Perhaps an overly strong report will worry those inflation hawks?

Average hourly earnings starting to tick up? The fed will be keen to see how earnings growth develops which could lead to inflation down the road.

So, that’s about it for the week ahead.

I’ll be back in touch with more news and views on trading the markets…

In the meantime, check out our free stock market trading webinar.

It’s free to attend and there are different times to choose from.

Click here to get your place.

Regards,

Jerry Miller

Managing Director

Trendsignal

And the strategy – which I’ll be telling you about in this free session – takes as little as 20 minutes a day, following a simple set of rules.

See it and learn how to use it in this free online session.

Look, I am not expecting every trade to move that much, and I could argue that these trades have overshot their typical objective, but certainly in the case of UKOil, there are some exceptionally strong trending markets right now, and our Accelerator Snipers are picking up plenty of BIG movers.

In fact, when I compress the chart, you can see the most recent Sniper trades over the past few months, starting with a +500 cent fall in October, followed by 5 Buy Snipers (notice the Red and Green rim to the Disks automatically printed on the chart).

If that sounds like something you’d like to check out...

Make sure you’re at this free live online event.

Yes, the 4^th buy is a loser (unless you were quick to take profit since it only rose 44 cents after the buy) but the others are big, stonking +400 point moves, barely showing any hint of a pull back or stop-out.

Gold has been similarly profitable.

Again, you can see the “Grade A” trades covering the past few months.

Yes, Gold has been rather more sideways over that time than the rampant uptrend on UKOil, but it hasn’t stopped it picking up 5 +150 point winners.

And you have to remember what this strategy is for…

It ISN’T looking for 1000 point moves.

We are looking for a typical hold of 2-3 days.

And with that, we have tight stop losses and a realistic view on targets.

I mean, whilst it would be lovely, we aren’t so likely to see a 1000 pip moves in 3 days. But, 100 – 150 points on GOLD??

Absolutely.

Yes, we can learn to hold on and ride the bigger moves, but as a new trader, the joy of this strategy is being able to spot the next burst of momentum for yourself.

Easy to identify, quick to release and away we go.

As explained in the video, some exceptional trades here, actionable even by a new trader… if you have the right technology.

Happy trading

P.S. These sessions are free – and they’re popular with our readers. That means that they book up quickly.

So, to make sure of a place, reserve it NOW.

Choose which session you’d like and book it here.