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Trading Oil when the Trends Change.

I just had to do a video on the recent moves on Oil.

The recent short was one of my favourite types of trades.

This is all about spotting when trends change, and how to trade them.

You see, counter-trend trades are nice and easy to talk about after the event, but in reality, they can be hard to take with confidence.

There is however a nice pattern that really helps me select my favourite counter-trend opportunities with the confidence required.

I have done a video on it, which will go into the details.

It might look complicated from this image, but watch the video and I’ll break this down into a simple concept, which time and time again allows me to pinpoint higher probability trading signals.

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Just focussing on the Sniper strategy (disks on the chart), we can see 5 trades. 2 with the trend and 3 counter-trend. Trades that are moving with the longer term trend are usually the safest and produce the best and most consistent returns.

And counter-trend opportunities can be a little more erratic.

What I am talking about here is moving from a system follower to someone who can out-perform, improve their results and reduce the number of loss making trades.

Same thing with any golfer… the way we score better, is by playing fewer bad shots – not by playing more good shots. Look after the bad shots and the good shots look after themselves.

This clever pattern will help you and our Trendsignal members to do just that.

Remember: Trendsignal is an award-winning trading educator. We provide home traders with trading systems, trading strategies and expert coaching to help them achieve great results.

As explained in the video, some exceptional trades here, actionable even by a new trader… if you have the right technology.

So check my video out, and I hope it helps you achieve better results.

Happy trading

Adrian Buthee
Head of Trading

I just had to do a video on the recent moves on Oil. The recent short was one of my favourite types of trades. This is all about spotting when trends change, and how to trade them. You see, counter-trend trades are nice and easy to talk about after the event, but in reality, they can be hard to take with confidence. There is however a nice pattern that really helps me select my favourite counter-trend opportunities with the confidence required. I have done a video on it, which will go into the details.

Market News – Stocks higher, dollar lower as ‘risk-on’ remains

ear Reader

Chinese markets were slightly firmer overnight.

That’s helping European markets start the week slightly higher.

For US stocks, that builds on what was a decent week last week… with the Dow Jones up some 382 points or 1.29%.

That brings the Dow’s performance for October to 4.82% or +1,640 points.

This positive performance from the Dow is great news for our Momentum Stocks strategy which identifies stocks exhibiting strong momentum.

We then buy into those stocks and ride them while the momentum lasts.

And as our Head Trader, Adrian Buthee explains in this 2-minute video, the strategy has significantly outperformed the Dow over the past 5 years.

If you’re available for an hour on Thursday, come to Adrian’s free online session to see the strategy in action.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar continues to slip versus other major currencies as risk-on theme continues.

Review of last week’s key action

FTSE -29 -0.41% DOW +382 +1.29% S&P +76 +1.64% NASDQ +193 +1.29% DAX -44 -0.28% NIKKEI -264 -0.91% Hang Seng +795 +3.14%

Despite the below consensus Chinese GDP data at the start of last week, overall, the data last week was positive.

Meanwhile, the PMI data from most western economies was better than the consensus with stand-out data from both the UK and US.

However, the Eurozone services sector suffered an unexpected fall which is likely due to the spike in energy and general commodity prices brought about by these global supply bottlenecks that all economies are experiencing.

News last Friday from Evergrande, the massively indebted Chinese property development group, helped markets to recover losses from the start of last week.

Evergrande managed to pay at the eleventh hour the missed interest payment on foreign US Dollar bonds which has given some very short-term relief to the Hong Kong market although the debt remains and so does the risk that the company could default without offloading some assets.

However, equity markets continue to believe what central bankers are telling us about the prospects for inflation.

Here in the UK, analysts are now pricing in a near 80% probability of a rate rise before Christmas.

There has been some criticism of the Bank of England’s aggressive market speak with the Economist calling for the bank to pause with any rate rise.

An interesting article in the FT highlights how investors view what Central Banks are up to.

The yield on the two-year UK gilt and 2-year treasury (US sovereign debt) have risen sharply in the last two months reflecting the likelihood of a start in the tightening cycle in both the UK and US.

In the UK, 2-year gilts are now yielding 0.7% - not much to write home about – but just two months ago they were 0.1%.

It’s a similar picture in the US, where 2-year bond yields are at 0.49% having risen from 0.25%.

However, if we look further along the yield curve or duration, we see that the yield on long term bonds in both markets have not moved much at all which suggests that the market suspects that inflation will be tamed quickly.

Remember that long term bond yields are very sensitive to the corrosive effects of inflation.

So, put it another way – investors are currently implying that that both the BoE and Federal Reserve could be making a policy error in raising rates and tapering QE.

This means, these central banks could end up choking off some of the post pandemic recovery risking stagflation in the medium term and the likelihood that these rate rises would have to be reversed.

Of course, these moves in the bond markets could change again should inflation really take hold.

EURUSD +0.49 +0.42 GBPUSD Unch USDJPY -0.23 -0.2%

Little action in the forex market last week, with the US Dollar losing more of its gains since early September in anticipating of the start to QE tapering.

Gold +24 +1.35% UK OIL +1.04 +1.23% US OIL +1.7 +2.06%

Oil continued its relentless rise, adding another $1 from the previous week.

The Yen experienced some profit taking halting the slide from the previous week although the energy squeeze will have a direct impact on Japan which has to import significant quantities of oil and gas.

Last Tuesday’s successful launch of the Proshares Bitcoin Strategy ETF, to give it its full name, gave another boost to Bitcoin and other Cryptos.

The Bitcoin ETF, or BITO as it’s called, attracted more than $1 Bln from investors making it one of the fastest growing ETFs.

Data / events for the week ahead

ECB, BoC & BoJ policy meetings, the UK budget, and US GDP data to look forward to.

Monday

Germany German IFO business climate. Large survey of manufacturers and retailers. Gradually slipping from levels four months ago.

Tuesday

Wednesday

Japan Bank of Japan policy meeting. Following upgrade in outlook the bank is expected to make no change to official rates.

UK UK’s Autumn Statement presented by Chancellor Rishi Sunak. Almost all the policy announcements seem to have been trailed ahead of the announcements in parliament so markets will probably have little in the way of any meaningful surprises.

Canada Bank of Canada – no change ahead of FED’s FOMC policy meeting in early November.

US Core Durable Goods orders. Still on the rise but slowing.

Thursday

Eurozone ECB policy meeting. Whilst investors have started to price in a slight rise in Eurozone rates by end of 2022, the likelihood of anything happening in the short to medium term is very low. Markets are predicting the Eurozone rates will increase by 0.1% by the end of 2022.

Hardly noteworthy – actually, noteworthy for how dovish investors are about prospects for a rate rise.

Most analysts expect the ECB to maintain a more dovish approach, contrary to what the BoE have been saying. They can’t both be right, or can they??

US GDP data.

Friday

US Revised University of Michigan Consumer sentiment. Stabilising??

US Chicago PMI – Still falling.

So, that’s about it for the week ahead.

I’ll be back in touch with more news and views on trading the markets…

In the meantime, remember to tune into our stock market trading session on Thursday at 12.30pm.

It’s free to attend, but places are limited. So, if you fancy coming along, don’t delay – get your free pass here.

If we continue to get strength in the US stock market in the weeks ahead, the small group of well-known stocks we focus on look well placed to benefit.

And with our specially designed indicators, you’ll know the best time to enter for potential profits.

Check out the strategy in our Momentum Stocks session.

Click here to get your FREE place in the webinar.

Regards,

Jerry Miller

Managing Director

Trendsignal

ear Reader Chinese markets were slightly firmer overnight. That’s helping European markets start the week slightly higher. For US stocks, that builds on what was a decent week last week… with the Dow Jones up some 382 points or 1.29%. That brings the Dow’s performance for October to 4.82% or +1,640 points. This positive performance from the Dow is great news for our Momentum Stocks strategy which identifies stocks exhibiting strong momentum. We then buy into those stocks and ride them while the momentum lasts. And as our Head Trader, Adrian Buthee explains in this 2-minute video, the strategy has significantly outperformed the Dow over the past 5 years. If you’re available for an hour on Thursday,...

Market News – Stock markets recover after tough September

Dear Reader,

Equity markets may have stemmed the big declines seen at the end of September.

The US Dow Jones added 925 points from the low last week to Friday’s close.

And that’s great news for buyers of momentum stocks like the ones we trade in our Momentum Stocks strategy.

But whilst stocks have recovered, bond prices have fallen further as yields increase ahead of the likely start of tapering by the Fed in early November.

Yields on the 10-year treasury have jumped from 1.35% a month ago to 1.61% now.

The jump in global energy costs have also rattled investors as concerns mount that the jump in commodity prices could have a more longer lasting effect on inflation.

It’s not just in the US either. Bonds yields have been on the rise in all developed and developing countries as supply bottlenecks have been exacerbated further with “buying at any cost” from the Chinese for energy supplies.

Explainer: Why do bond yields matter?

Governments and businesses issue bonds to finance their operations. The amount borrowed has an annual coupon, or interest rate, that is paid by the issuer to the owner of the bond.

If the demand for Bonds starts to reduce and inflation picks up – as discussed inflation is really the enemy of bonds – then the return or yield must rise to compensate those holders.

So, if yields rise, it costs more for issuers – that’s governments and businesses – to raise capital which has a direct impact of their operations by raising financing costs.

Of course, that is one of the reasons why central banks carried out QE, the active purchases of bonds from the marketplace to lower borrowing costs and inject huge sums of cash into the financial system.

Here in the UK, energy prices have been in the headlines for three weeks now as the steel sector and other large consumers start to feel the effects of record high gas prices, which have increased tenfold in some cases.

Investors were concerned that the UK could suffer an imminent rise in interest rates just when growth was looking vulnerable in the wake of these price shocks and supply bottlenecks.

Like in the US, 10-year bond yields here in the UK have also been caught up in the global rose in bond yields with yields jumping to 1.16% from 0.65% a month ago.

Review of last week’s key action

FTSE +68 +1% DOW +419 +1.22% S&P +34 +0.8% NASDQ unch DAX +47 +0.33% NIKKEI -722 -2.5% Hang Seng +262 +1.07%

Equities recovered their vigour mid-week.

But on Friday, US Non-Farm payrolls disappointed, with just 194K jobs created against an expectation of 500K.

The previous month’s figure was revised up 135K jobs, but it was still a miss of 165K jobs.

Despite the poor headline number, analysts seem to think that the report contained enough positives, such as the drop in the unemployment rate to 4.8% and the upward revision of last month’s number by 130K, to encourage the Fed to start the tapering process in their November meet.

EURUSD -0.22 -0.2% GBPUSD +0.68 +09.5% USDJPY +1.15 +1.03%

The US Dollar nudged further higher last week and, like equities, slipped a little on Friday following the underwhelming NFP data.

Sterling continued to recover the losses from the start of the month as analysts weighed up the prospects of higher rates and the talk of stagflation.

Gold unch UK OIL +3.33 +4.2% US OIL +3.78 +5%

Despite pressure being exerted on OPEC by Biden administration, the OPEC cartel did not move on its planned production. The problem consumers have now is the spill over effect from Natural Gas.

The price lats week for natural gas is the equivalent of $200 per barrel for oil so you can see why any consumer who could switch to crude would do!

Gold made a small increase early on last week, but the stronger US Dollar reversed those gains for the metal to end up unchanged largely on the week

Data / events for the week ahead

Calendar of data release is usually quieter the week after the US employment data – which is the case this week.

The key data, in light of a jump in energy prices and these supply bottlenecks, will be the US CPI (inflation) reading.

Also, the usual smattering of central bank speakers which seem largely to be concentrated from the US rate setting committee, the FOMC.

The UK’s relationship with the EU will occupy the front pages as the Norther Ireland protocol.

Monday

US US banks shut today in observance of Columbus Day, but most businesses and markets remain open; although liquidity will be lower in FX and bonds.

Tuesday

Germany ZEW economic Sentiment. Another dent as this institutional investor survey is expected to fall again for the fourth consecutive month…

US FOMC Member Clarida speaking at event about the economic outlook and monetary policy at an online event hosted by the Institute of International Finance. Could be interesting when Q & A starts.

Wednesday

US CPI / inflation reading. Key release of the week in light of heightened market angst. We already know inflation is at a level that warrants the start of the Fed’s QE tapering. But how high will inflation go?

Bonds very sensitive to a bigger jump than consensus.

US FOMC minutes from September meeting. Investors will be keen to glean any information about the QE tapering that is likely to be announced at the 2/3rd November meeting.

Thursday

US Core PPI – producer Price Index. Measure the costs of good and services going into production. A leading indicator to CPI or inflation.

US Crude oil inventories. Delayed a day due to Columbus Day from Monday

Friday

US Core Retail sales – a pullback from last months, as sales ebb and flow since April.

US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment – signs of a modest recovery

So, that’s about it for the week ahead.

I’ll be back in touch with more news and views on trading the markets…

In the meantime, check out our stock market trading webinar.

As we’ve seen, stock markets are showing strength after the tough times in September.

And that means good opportunities for our Momentum Stocks Strategy.

Check out the strategy in our Momentum Stocks session.

Click here to get your FREE place in the webinar.

Regards,

Jerry Miller

Managing Director

Trendsignal

Dear Reader, Equity markets may have stemmed the big declines seen at the end of September. The US Dow Jones added 925 points from the low last week to Friday’s close. And that’s great news for buyers of momentum stocks like the ones we trade in our Momentum Stocks strategy. But whilst stocks have recovered, bond prices have fallen further as yields increase ahead of the likely start of tapering by the Fed in early November. Yields on the 10-year treasury have jumped from 1.35% a month ago to 1.61% now. The jump in global energy costs have also rattled investors as concerns mount that the jump in commodity prices could have a more...

Market News – Evergrande knocks markets

Dear Reader,

World equities markets continued with their losing streak this morning.

This time Far East markets are the catalyst, as one of the world’s most indebted property developer struggles.

Evergrande, which is listed on the Hong Kong exchange, fell an alarming 19% following news it was struggling with debts of more than $300bn.

The fall in Evergrande dragged down the Hang Seng index by 3.7%, which is now down over 12% this year.

That means it is in official correction territory, having fallen more than 10% from its highs.

The worry now is contagion and how this liquidity crunch for Evergrande will affect the broader market.

The Chinese property has been experiencing a slowdown and had been impacting other markets as well.

Iron Ore prices collapsed 20% last week – the biggest fall since 2008 and the start of the great financial crisis.

Other base metals could now come under pressure in the wake of the slowdown in the property development sector.

Other developers and financial institutions also fell on the news as they are at risk of significant loss if Evergrande fails.

Review of last week’s key action

FTSE -65 -0.93% DOW unch S&P -26 -0.57% NASDQ -71 -0.47% DAX -119 -0.77% NIKKEI +118 +0.4% Hang Seng -1285 -4.9%

The liquidity crunch in the Chinese property sector, combined with a slowing down in global growth numbers continues to depress sentiment in equities.

For US equities the market continues to wrestle with the timing of QE tapering and its impact on the markets.

Whilst at the same time inflation remains a very hot topic, especially here in the UK with the impact of the 250% spike in natural gas having significant impact across a wide range of industries… not to mention those independent energy suppliers here that are likely to be rescued today.

As from today the DAX index in Germany is made up of 40 stocks now – so an additional 10 have been added.

This won’t affect the index price, but it will mean that any original member share of the DAX 30 index will have proportionally a less effect of the index for any given move.

In addition, those new stocks that have been admitted will now play their part of the movement in the Index that they comprise.

EURUSD -0.43 -0.36% GBPUSD -0.95 -0.7% USDJPY +0.3 +0.27%

The US Dollar was moderately higher last week as the risk-off environment persisted.

The two-day FOMC meeting this week will be pivotal for the medium-term direction of the Dollar as the Fed looks to clarify its plans on the start to tapering the emergency QE program.

Despite the bigger than expected inflation reading last week here in the UK, Sterling did not jump at all. If anything, it lost some ground against most majors.

Perhaps the view is that inflation is a general western if not global problem.

Already economists are now suggesting that price inflation could start to herald wage push inflation – something that is more difficult to keep a lid on.

Gold -33 -1.84% UK OIL +2.48 +3.4% US OIL +2.31 +3.3%

Gold fell again last week. You’d be forgiven for thinking we were in a period of low inflation but the main driver for Gold is the US Dollar and the possible rise in general rates with the unwinding of QE.

This adds to the opportunity cost of holding gold, if interest rates start to rise.

Oil supplies remain tight whilst demand remains buoyant.

Data / events for the week ahead

Very busy week for data this week.

Central banks taking the main billing… but we also have key data on manufacturing and services sectors.

Monday

Holiday in Japan and China today. Be interesting to see how mainland Chinese markets react to the Evergrande news when they re-open on Wednesday.

Perhaps the moves in Hong Kong were exacerbated because of the China holiday today.

Tuesday

Australia Monetary policy minutes.

Wednesday

Japan BOJ monthly policy meeting. Looking better with Suga’s departure.

US FOMC policy meeting. End of two-day meeting when Fed could announce detail of timing re tapering of QE.

Economists believe the tapering could start in November. Some commentators speculate that the poor employment number at the beginning of the month may cause a delay in these plans.

Press conference will also be interesting in the event of the news.

All markets will be affected by this event.

Thursday

Eurozone, UK and US Flash manufacturing and services data. Slowing?

Swiss SNB – monthly policy meeting – No change

UK MPC policy meeting. The fourth major one of the week.

BOE forecast for inflation will be interesting considering last week’s surprise jump in the CPI. Investors will be keen to know about prospects for rate rises and tapering of the QE program.

Friday

US Jay Powell speaking at Federal Reserve online event.

Events.

Elections in a number of countries. Canada, Russia and Germany.

A change likely coming in Germany. Federal elections taking place next Sunday 26th which will see Merkel replaced – possibly by another party’s head.

Current polling suggests that the SPD, with 26%, will form the next government in coalition with the Green Party. The ruling CDU/CSU is struggling on 21%.

So, that’s about it for the week ahead.

I’ll be back in touch with more news and views on trading the markets…

In the meantime, check out our stock market trading webinar.

Despite weakness in stock market indices, there are still decent trading opportunities to be found in individual stocks showing positive momentum.

We’ll reveal our strategy in our Momentum Stocks webinar this Thursday at 12.30pm.

Click here to get your FREE place in the webinar.

Regards,

Jerry Miller

Managing Director

Trendsignal

Dear Reader, World equities markets continued with their losing streak this morning. This time Far East markets are the catalyst, as one of the world’s most indebted property developer struggles. Evergrande, which is listed on the Hong Kong exchange, fell an alarming 19% following news it was struggling with debts of more than $300bn. The fall in Evergrande dragged down the Hang Seng index by 3.7%, which is now down over 12% this year. That means it is in official correction territory, having fallen more than 10% from its highs. The worry now is contagion and how this liquidity crunch for Evergrande will affect the broader market. The Chinese property has been...

A detailed review on the most recent GBP trading opportunities

A number of recent opportunities on the GBP currency pairs for Trendsignal members. In this video, Adrian Buthee reviews these opportunities and how they can be traded, whether with or against the longer term trends. GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/AUD, GBP/CGF, GBP/JPY and GBP/NZD.

A number of recent opportunities on the GBP currency pairs for Trendsignal members. In this video, Adrian Buthee reviews these opportunities and how they can be traded, whether with or against the longer term trends. GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/AUD, GBP/CGF, GBP/JPY and GBP/NZD....

Market News - Week Commencing 26th July

So last weeks events were a bit thin on the ground, but the ECB policy meeting was probably the most important. The governing council or rate setting committee, that sets rates and monetary policy, announced a slight change to their forward guidance.

This included the announcement that the ECB is in no rush to raise rates. The bank also said that they would account for higher inflation tolerance in their overall policy mix. In short the ECB said “they expect to keep interest rates at their present or lower levels until inflation reaches 2% well ahead of their projection horizon AND remain durably at or above that rate for the rest of the projection period.

In a nutshell, no rate rises even if inflation remains stubbornly high for a protracted period.

The bank confirmed that the recent Delta variant spread is a “growing source of uncertainty.”

The Euro, albeit almost becalmed last week, as the week before, fell slightly – reflecting the unlikelihood of any rate raise or policy tightening I the next 18 months.

So, its Central Banks that continue to support the markets and determine the direction of everything from equities to bonds, foreign exchange, and commodities.

……….and we have another key meeting this week from the Federal Reserve.

Review

FTSE +20 +0.28% DOW +374 +1.08% S&P +85 +1.96% NASDQ +410 +2.85%

DAX +193 +0.83% NIKKEI -455 -2.62%

Once again equity markets confirmed that, dispute a resurgence in Covid cases across Europe and the US, there remains only ONE game in town. Namely equities!

And look how these markets have rallied since the lows at the start of the Pandemic last March.

The FT published a report, authored by UBS, which highlights the winners and losers. You only have to look at the super wealthy flying into space to know who the winners are.

Wealth inequality has reached record levels – where data shows US

individuals’ net assets against their liabilities rising dramatically since early last year. The net worth of the top 1% of people is now 26 times their liabilities. For the bottom 20% its just 5 times................................................ this is the widest it’s ever

been. TBH – I was surprised how high the bottom 20% are…….

Instead of flying into space the super wealthy should be taking the federal reserve out to lunch. Maybe they are already doing that as well.

EURUSD -0.34 -0.28% GBPUSD -0.13 -0.1% USDJPY +0.47 +0.42%

Gold -10 -0.55%   UK OIL +0.98 +1.34%    US OIL +0.63 +0.86%

Bitcoin +2,247 +7.16%

Data / events

Following hot on the heels of the ECB last week we have the Federal Reserve / FOMC meeting this week which is always interesting.

Whilst not an event the market will continue to watch the Covid infection rate

across Europe, US and Far East and Australia as the Delta variant takes hold. Monday

Germany                  IFO Business Climate Survey. Broad survey of manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, services, and retailers; Euro / Dax sensitive Continuing to climb

Tuesday

US                               Consumer confidence for Conference Board. USD sensitive to a more notable pull back

Wednesday

US                                           Crude inventories. Last week saw first build in stocks

in a few weeks.

US                                           Federal Reserve FOMC policy meeting. No change in rates. And less likely as the Delta variant surges in some of the Southern States, Will the FED continue the discussion regarding the eventual tapering of the Fed’s $120bn monthly asset purchase programme? i.e., when will they start to slow the purchase of bonds, which pumps billion of USDs into the financial system each month. Previous advice was that the Fed will continue with the purchases until it sees “substantial further progress” towards its inflation and employment goals. So, no tapering for a while.

USD, Equities, and commodities all sensitive to this key event.

Thursday

US                                           Advance GDP. First of three releases of the GDP for Q2. This measures the value of all goods and services produced in the period April to June. Quarter on quarter rise of a whopping 8.5% following 6.4% in Q1.

And the FED will still be keeping rates at record low levels       !!

Friday

US                                           Revision to UoM consumer sentiment reading. Still confident!!

Saturday

China                                     Manufacturing PMI – Is China’s growth spurt post pandemic recovery starting to run out of steam?? This matters for the global economy although the US has clearly picked up any slack due to slow down in the World’s second largest economy.

So last weeks events were a bit thin on the ground, but the ECB policy meeting was probably the most important. The governing council or rate setting committee, that sets rates and monetary policy, announced a slight change to their forward guidance. This included the announcement that the ECB is in no rush to raise rates. The bank also said that they would account for higher inflation tolerance in their overall policy mix. In short the ECB said “they expect to keep interest rates at their present or lower levels until inflation reaches 2% well ahead of their projection horizon AND remain durably at or above that rate for the rest of the projection period. In a nutshell, no rate rises even if inflation remains stubbornly high for a protracted period. The bank confirmed that the recent Delta variant spread is a...

Market News – Investors poised for bumper Q2 results

Well, the Euro2020 dream is over.

But I think we can all agree that the lads did us proud.

And with Gareth Southgate’s vision and the immense talent we are already seeing in such a young squad, hopefully we have some good years ahead for English football.

But let’s move on and focus our attention back on the markets and the opportunities they’re giving us.

£1,000 grows to £2,560 in 6 months

If you can spare an hour today at 7pm, check out the free webinar Adrian is hosting.

He’ll be focusing on a strategy we use to trade individual company shares.

Primarily, we focus on Dow Jones 30 stocks – because we’ve found they offer the most opportunities.

But you can also use it to spot high-probability trades on other stocks, including UK-listed ones.

I think you’ll love the simplicity and effectiveness of this strategy.

Going for modest 5% returns on each trade, we’ve achieved a cumulative return of 156% in the first six months of the year.

Putting that in perspective, had you followed every trade identified in the period, you could have turned a £1,000 trading account into £2,560 in just six months.

And you’ll be surprised how simple it is to use, with the help of our award-winning trade identification software.

See it in action – for free – in this 60-minute online session today.

Meanwhile, let’s look at what’s been happening in the markets... and what we can expect this week…

Mixed signals in the US

US and global markets weathered the FOMC minutes last Wednesday which did not ring any alarm bells.

The minutes showed that the rate setting committee was debating whether to start tapering the bond purchase program sooner because of the stronger economic rebound and outlook.

Counter that with some signs that Data has started to soften in the US and leading indicators in the EU suggesting a potential slowdown in economic activity. The German ZEW survey of institutional investors and analysts posted the weakest reading in 54 months.

News that the Delta covid variant is taking hold in parts of the EU and US (NY state has seen infection rates double in two weeks) may start to play on investors’ minds in the coming days.

Germany advised its citizens not to travel to Spain which now has the highest infection rate in mainland Europe, knocking Portugal off the top spot.

Additional restrictions are being reimposed in a number of member states as the more infectious Delta variant becomes dominant.

In the last week, the European centre for Disease Control said that the infection rate had jumped 34% to 51.6 per 100,000.

Review of last week’s key action

FTSE unchanged DOW +83 (+0.25%) S&P +17 (+0.4%) NASDQ +62 (+0.43%) DAX +37 (+0.24%) NIKKEI –842 (-2.93%)

A quieter week on global markets last week.

A week and a half ago the US reported weaker manufacturing PMI, albeit still quite a hot reading.

Then last week the Services PMI underwhelmed although again with a reading at 60 which is still hot.

The FOMC minutes suggests that the debate about tapering QE will continue although the Fed said the “substantial further progress” in the economic conditions had still not been met.

EURUSD unchanged GBPUSD +0.78 (+0.56%) USDJPY -0.90 (-0.8%)

The US Dollar gave up some ground last week following the FOMC minutes which soothed the markets and made clear rates remain on hold.

Despite weaker data last Friday on Industrial production and manufacturing, Sterling picked up some lost ground from the previous week as the UK heads towards an end to all lockdown restrictions from July 19th.

Gold +15 (+0.84%) UK OIL -90.5 (-0.65%) US OIL +0.42 (+0.56%) Bitcoin unchanged

Gold responded to the modest slide in the US dollar last week, but moves were measured. The gains did little to recover the dramatic falls from June though.

A failure of OPEC to agree a production increase was a double-edged sword for the price.

Without an agreement to raise production, the price initially bounced but concerns are now mounting over the disunity with the cartel and its ability to manage prices.

Reports suggest the UAE had effectively sunk the Saudi deal to raise production following a near 50% jump in prices so far this year.

Data / events for the week ahead

A busier week this week for key economic releases and events.

Plus, we have a splurge of US Q2 earnings from US companies being released this week, starting with the banks.

CNBC expands:

“It’s the countdown to the second-quarter earnings season.

“The big banks dominate the calendar in coming days, with JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Bank of America all reporting on their recent quarter.

“Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, said investors should brace themselves — this one will be a doozy.

“I think what we’re going to be seeing is the second-best year-on-year quarterly gain in the last 25 years, second only to what we saw in the fourth quarter of 2009, since S&P 500 earnings are expected to be almost 61% this quarter,” Stovall told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Friday.

Could be great news for our Momentum Stocks strategy which focuses on trading big US stocks.

To learn more about the strategy, tune in to Adrian’s free webinar.

Monday

No major releases today

Tuesday

US Another nervous wait for US inflation reading. A month on month reading of core prices is expected at +0.4% whilst the annual inflation rate is expected at 4.9% compared to last year’s June reading.

If the rate comes in higher, as did May’s reading reported last month, then markets may stutter. US Dollar, bonds and equities sensitive.

Wednesday

UK CPI data. Inflation expected to remain at elevated levels as commodity prices remain firm. GBP sensitive.

US PPI data. Cost of goods / services going into production. The jump in the PPI over past 6 months looks set to continue.

Canada BoC rate decision. No change in rates or policy. Bank remains cautiously optimistic but too soon for a policy change.

US Jay Powell due to testify on the Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report before the House Financial Services Committee. Part of two-day testimony.

Thursday

China Q2 GDP reading – less hot as economic activity pulls back from the strong q1 reading.

Friday

Japan BoJ policy meeting. Tougher outlook in Japan as the Covid infection surges in major cities, including Tokyo where the Olympic gains kicks off in two weeks. No change in rates expected.

All eyes on Q2 results

It’s the banks that release first with expectations for a bumper set of results.

The FT reports that companies listed on the S&P500 index are forecast to report earnings-per-share growth of 63% for Q2 – that follows hot on the heels of 52.5% jump in Q1 earnings compared to a year ago.

An increase of 63% in EPS would be the biggest jump since the aftermath of the financial crisis in 2009.

Key results this week are.

Tuesday Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan

Wednesday Bank of America, Citigroup

Thursday Morgan Stanley, BNY Mellon

So, that’s about it for the week ahead.

I’ll be back in touch with more news and views on trading the markets…

In the meantime, check out our Adrian’s stock market trading webinar.

It’s free to attend and there are different times to choose from.

Click here to get your place.

Regards,

Jerry Miller

Managing Director

Trendsignal

Well, the Euro2020 dream is over. But I think we can all agree that the lads did us proud. And with Gareth Southgate’s vision and the immense talent we are already seeing in such a young squad, hopefully we have some good years ahead for English football. But let’s move on and focus our attention back on the markets and the opportunities they’re giving us. £1,000 grows to £2,560 in 6 months If you can spare an hour today at 7pm, check out the free webinar Adrian is hosting. He’ll be focusing on a strategy we use to trade individual company shares. Primarily, we focus on Dow Jones 30 stocks – because we’ve found they offer the most...

Market News - Week Commencing 5th July

Dear Fellow Trader,

What a fantastic result for England on Saturday!

Is football coming home? Plenty think it is… and after that performance, the nation got a boost in confidence, that’s for sure.

Let’s see what the guys can do against the Danes on Wednesday.

In the meantime, let’s see what’s been going on in the markets… and what’s in store for this week.

Before we do that, take a second to grab your place at our Momentum Stocks webinar.

It’s free to attend and we’re seeing great results from trading some of the world’s best-known stocks with a strategy that’s outperforming the Dow Jones.

I think you’ll love the simplicity and effectiveness of this strategy.

OK, let’s get to the markets...

US closed for Independence Day

In the US, it’s Independence Day celebrations today so all US markets closed.

Movements will therefore be slightly more restricted.

But also bear in mind with the US closed, that any unexpected news could see greater moves than would otherwise be the case.

Far East markets were lower overnight with the Nikkei down 0.6% whilst Chinese indices were mixed.

Global markets failed to respond to the rally in US equities after Europe shut Friday.

But the Dow Jones is within spitting distance of its record high set on 10^th May.

If it can break that, then there could be another big leg higher.

That would be great news for our Momentum Stocks strategy that focuses on Dow stocks and rides them for bursts of momentum.

NOTE: Check out how we’re trading Dow stocks in our FREE webinar on this stock market trading strategy. Register here.

Review of last week’s key action

FTSE -12 -0.2% DOW +352 +1% NASDQ +279 +1.94% DAX +42 +0.27% NIKKEI -283 -0.97%

Another record closing high on US equities last Friday as employment data came in better than expected.

The addition of 850,000 new jobs in June was 125K more than expected but not so hot that it might push the Fed to react in a negative way (i.e. by raising interest rates).

The last quarter and half year finished last Wednesday with the broad- based S&P500 going out with the fifth straight monthly gain – a record on each occasion.

The current run of seven straight daily gains for the S&P is its best winning run since 1997.

Despite this record run, there are signs that some investors are getting a little nervous with the extent of the moves in the first 6 months of the year.

The skew index, as reported in the FT last week, measures the difference between the cost of using options to protect against a big market fall (put) versus the right to benefit from a rally (call).

This difference has hit record highs which implies fear is greater than the greed factor.

This is not the same as the VIX which simples measures the aggregate of individual at-the-money volatilities across all options.

The FTSE had a lacklustre week as did other European indices – in part due to the rebound in GBP and the Euro versus the US Dollar.

Perhaps the bid by Fortress for Morrisons will fire up the food retailing sector.

EURUSD -0.71 -0.6% GBPUSD -0.45 -0.32% USDJPY +0.23 +0.2%

The Euro finished lower against the US Dollar and Sterling in the first half of the year, contrary to most analysts’ expectations.

The focus on the reflation trade and jump in bond yields caught some investors out as concern mounted over the surge in inflation in western economies.

The Fed applied its comfort blanket to good effect as bond yields backed off but the US Dollar has not fallen back to levels seen at the start of the year.

Gold +6 +0.34% UK OIL UNCH US OIL +1.12 +1.51% Bitcoin +2,200 +7%

Gold had a shocker of a month in June as the jump in the USD resulted in a sharp sell-off as gold slumped $137 or 7.2%.

Despite the jump in inflation across developed economies, central bankers are all convinced that it is only temporary and will reverse – not something that Gold fans want to hear.

Oil ended unchanged last week following the inconclusive end to the Opec meeting last Thursday / Friday.

Demand remains strong, hence why crude is still close to a three year high but Opec failed to agree on an increase in the cartel’s production.

As a result OPEC will meet again today (Monday) by videoconference to address some members concerns.

Bitcoin settled down last week with little negative news.

Buyers pushed Bitcoin back to the middle of its recent trading range between 30,000 and 40,000.

Data / events for the week ahead

FOMC (rate setting committee of the federal Reserve in the US) minutes are probably the highlight of the week.

Monday

US Markets closed in observance of Independence Day celebrations.

OPEC Another round of talks between Opec members to agree production increases.

Tuesday

Australia Monthly policy meeting of RBA. Despite the renewed lockdown for almost half the population, the central bank is likely to reduce some of the emergency economic stimulus measures as the Australian economy powers ahead.

Analysts do not expect a pre-emptive move in rates as the governor of the central bank wants to avoid a rally in the Aussie dollar.

Expect AUD crosses to be sensitive to the news although by the time we are awake the news will be a couple of hours old.

Germany ZEW economic sentiment. A survey of institutional investors and analysts. Optimism has been building for months but some signs this may be slowing. Consensus is for 75 which would be lowest level for three months. Euro / Euro equities sensitive.

US ISM Services. A survey of purchasing managers in the services sector, which dominates the economy. Anything above 50 means sector is expanding. The reading has been above 60 for past 3 months which suggest its red hot. Another 60+ reading expected.

Wednesday

EU Update to economic forecasts for EU member states, with upgrades expected as economies recover ground post pandemic.

US FOMC minutes. Release of minutes from the last FOMC meeting.

The committee surprised markets by signalling a policy shift suggesting that the first interest rate rises would be in 2023 rather than 2024 as previously advised.

So, the markets will have a chance to find out what was behind the committee’s thinking. USD and equities will be sensitive to this release.

Following the last meeting on June 16th equities went into a tail spin for a few days but recovered sharply the following week as Fed officials sounded more dovish about rates.

Thursday

US Crude oil inventories – a day late due to federal holiday on Monday

G20 Finance ministers and central bankers meeting for 2 days – remotely.

Friday

UK, Eurozone Central bankers speaking at Global Forum on Productivity, in Venice.

So, that’s about it for the week ahead.

I’ll be back in touch with more news and views on trading the markets…

In the meantime, check out our free stock market trading webinar.

It’s free to attend and there are different times to choose from.

Click here to get your place.

Regards,

Jerry Miller

Managing Director

Trendsignal

Dear Fellow Trader, What a fantastic result for England on Saturday! Is football coming home? Plenty think it is… and after that performance, the nation got a boost in confidence, that’s for sure. Let’s see what the guys can do against the Danes on Wednesday. In the meantime, let’s see what’s been going on in the markets… and what’s in store for this week. Before we do that, take a second to grab your place at our Momentum Stocks webinar. It’s free to attend and we’re seeing great results from trading some of the world’s best-known stocks with a strategy that’s outperforming the Dow Jones. I think you’ll love the simplicity and effectiveness of

A look back on all the latest FX trades - 7 Winners

A slightly longer trade recap than expected from Adrian, but in this video he looks at the Scanner tool and all the trades triggering 3 bars ago… the idea being that this Accelerator strategy has a typical hold time of 1 to 3 days. Adrian reviews these latest trades, warts and all for a full trading recap.

A slightly longer trade recap than expected from Adrian, but in this video he looks at the Scanner tool and all the trades triggering 3 bars ago… the idea being that this Accelerator strategy has a typical hold time of 1 to 3 days. Adrian reviews these latest trades, warts and all for a full trading recap. ...

A shot in the arm for Walmart and our latest Momentum Trade

Support, resistance, chart patterns… these are extremely complex techniques to identify trades, and extremely subjective too. And that’s the problem. Today’s Trade of the Day is all about Walmart’s latest buying opportunity on the Momentum Stocks system. A great trade, and most importantly, with clear indicators and algorithms, it is extremely simple for our system users to spot too.

Support, resistance, chart patterns… these are extremely complex techniques to identify trades, and extremely subjective too. And that’s the problem. Today’s Trade of the Day is all about Walmart’s latest buying opportunity on the Momentum Stocks system. A great trade, and most importantly, with clear indicators and algorithms, it is extremely simple for our system users to spot too. ...

Market News - Week Commencing 28th June

Dear Fellow Trader,

I hope you had a great weekend.

In a moment, let’s check in with what’s been going on in the markets… and what’s in store for this week.

First, why not take a moment to book a place at our free stock trading session… click here to register.

You’ll learn more about how we’re beating the Dow Jones with our Momentum Stocks strategy.

And given how markets are moving right now… it’s a great time to be trading stocks with positive momentum.

Let me show you what I mean.

Stock markets bounce back

This coming Wednesday marks the end of H1.

With US stock markets posting record highs and with other markets benefiting from the reflation trade, it’s been an extraordinary first half of the year.

Investors continue to enjoy great returns as companies recover from the effects of the pandemic.

Let’s look at last week’s moves.

Following a poor performance, the previous week, US equities had their best week since February following the infrastructure spending deal announced by the Biden administration.

Forget about the Fed and inflation, all eyes were on this infrastructure spending bill worth $1.2 TRILLION.

The announcement pushed up financial, energy and industrial stocks resulting in record closes across major US indices.

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq both hit all-time highs on Friday…

And the Dow Jones is homing in on its own record set on 10^th May.

That creates news for our Momentum Stocks strategy that focuses on Dow stocks and rides them for bursts of momentum.

NOTE: Check out how we’re trading Dow stocks in our FREE webinar on this stock market trading strategy. Register here.

Review of last week’s key action

FTSE +118 +1.69% DOW +1,143 +3.44% NASDQ +330 +2.35% DAX +167 +1.08% NIKKEI -651 -2.2%

So, US indices made record highs last week with both the Nasdaq and S&P closing at record levels on Friday.

Remember how inflation was all that mattered a couple of weeks ago...

But that been put aside for now as central banks expect this inflationary spike to be transitory.

And so investors bought US stocks like crazy.

Other global indices responded although in more muted fashion.

The spreading Covid Delta variant could well put a dampener on some of the economies where the vaccine roll-out has been slow.

UK shares also had a better following the MPC update on Thursday.

Some speculation built about rate rises early next year.

But this balloon soon burst as the MPC regarded current price pressures as temporary and likely to subside by year end.

Much the same as the Fed, then.

This seems to be the common view amongst central bankers now.

Let us hope they are right.

Sterling slipped on the news – falling against both the Euro and the USD almost immediately following the MPC’s statement, which is what you might expect.

EURUSD +0.72 +0.6% GBPUSD +0.69 +0.5% USDJPY +0.57 +0.52%

The US Dollar slipped on exchanges last week following the Fed’s calm response to the spike in inflation which the bank regards as temporary – for another few months before price rises ease into the year end.

As just mentioned, Sterling lost ground it made earlier in the week following the MPC statement.

Gold +17 +1% UK OIL +2.88 +3.9% US OIL +2.56 +3.6% Bitcoin -3,886 –10.87%

Gold made little headway last week despite the modest fall in the US Dollar.

The precious metal fell sharply the previous week but did not even manage a dead cat bounce.

Perhaps comments from the Fed about the transient nature of the inflation spike left little good news for Gold to focus on. Typically, gold is regarded as a hedge against inflation.

The world’s oil markets continue to surge higher as the world’s markets continue to recover post pandemic. Speculation continues to mount about $100 per barrel as supplies remain tight whilst demand continues to pick up.

Last week’s data from the Energy Information Administration showed another large draw down in stocks – a situation that has been developing since early April.

Bitcoin continues its roller coaster ride, with some big moves last week.

It was down 16% over Monday and Tuesday.

The cause this time was the announcement from China clamping down on Bitcoin mining activities and cryptocurrency trading.

Despite the news, Bitcoin and other Cryptos have recovered some of this lost ground over the weekend.

Cryptos remain one of the most exciting markets for traders and that doesn’t look like changing any time soon.

Data / events for the week ahead

There will be much focus on the end of the week.

We have the first Friday of the new month which means it’s US employment data release – or Non-Farm Payroll as we call it.

Monday

No impactful data today

Tuesday

US Conference Board release of consumer confidence. Another bounce…

Wednesday

China Manufacturing PMI. Holding above 50 but activity slowing.

Eurozone Flash Consumer Price Index (CPI) readings. May’s jump was the first time inflation had exceeded the ECB’s target in 2 years.

Price pressures have continued to build and will do so for the remainder of the year… with the usual caveats about a potential 3rd wave with the Covid delta variant.

The ECB, in common with other central banks, seems happy to accept higher prices and higher wages, in the belief that price pressures will wane with inflation expected to fall back to 1.4% in 2023.

ADP Nonfarm employment change.

Thursday

OPEC. Regular OPEC – JMMC policy meeting. Smugness all round.

US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Still hot…

UK BoE Governor Bailey speaking at Mansion House. Could be interesting for comments on inflation.

Friday

US Non-Farm Payroll. Data over the last two months has been surprisingly weak and well below the consensus.

The question is, will the pace of job creation accelerate in June?

Consensus is for another 700K new jobs. The market seems so resilient and seemed less concerned about the lack of jobs growth in April and May. Perhaps an overly strong report will worry those inflation hawks?

Average hourly earnings starting to tick up? The fed will be keen to see how earnings growth develops which could lead to inflation down the road.

So, that’s about it for the week ahead.

I’ll be back in touch with more news and views on trading the markets…

In the meantime, check out our free stock market trading webinar.

It’s free to attend and there are different times to choose from.

Click here to get your place.

Regards,

Jerry Miller

Managing Director

Trendsignal

Dear Fellow Trader, I hope you had a great weekend. In a moment, let’s check in with what’s been going on in the markets… and what’s in store for this week. First, why not take a moment to book a place at our free stock trading session… click here to register. You’ll learn more about how we’re beating the Dow Jones with our Momentum Stocks strategy. And given how markets are moving right now… it’s a great time to be trading stocks with positive momentum. Let me show you what I mean. Stock markets bounce back This coming Wednesday marks the end of H1. With US stock markets posting record highs and with other markets benefiting from the reflation trade, it’s been an...

Market News - Week Commencing 21st June

I hope you had a great weekend.

let’s check in with what’s been going on in the markets… and what’s in store for this week.

Markets react to Fed ‘guidance’ change

Following the slide in US equities on Friday, global markets were lower overnight…

The risk-off move was quite marked last week, although we have seen a noticeable rebound off the lows in the overnight futures markets.

But it’s clear that traders remain nervous.

Financial markets continue to reverberate to the news from the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting last week… and the prospect of rising interest rates down the line.

In case you weren’t aware…

The Fed communicates its intentions to the financial markets using terms referred to as guidance.

This states what the Fed’s thinking is on the path of interest rates and other more recent monetary tools such as quantitative easing (QE).

QE is the purchase of bonds – both sovereign (i.e. government) and corporate (bonds issued by companies to borrow money).

By buying these bonds, the Fed provides liquidity to the financial markets.

Up until last week the Fed made it very clear that rates would be kept at record lows for a long time – until at least 2024.

The markets got comfortable with this – which is why they have been rising relentlessly since March 2020.

Even as inflation spiked higher in recent data, the Fed allayed markets’ fear by restating their view that the spike in inflation was transitory.

So, what happened last week that changed all this?

Simply the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee that sets interest rates), decided to change its guidance.

It said it now expected to raise rates twice in 2023, which effectively brings the first rate rise forward by one year.

No wonder the market reacted…

The reason for this change is that the Fed expects growth and inflation to be higher than previously forecast this year.

2023 is still a long way off, of course.

But what it tells you is that the Fed is having to change its guidance as the post pandemic economy heats up.

That means it could change again if this economic hot streak gets even hotter or persists longer than expected.

Of course, the other element is how transitory this inflation spike is?

Will it persist longer than August?

Time will tell.

Let’s review the markets and see just how the markets reacted to this shift in policy guidance from the Fed.

As you’ll see, the move last week affected all asset classes as this risk-off move took hold

Review of last week’s key action

FTSE -117 -1.63% DOW -1189 -3.45% NASDQ -39 -0.28% DAX -245 -1.56% NIKKEI unch

Clearly equities were knocked badly by the Fed’s change in guidance.

The falls were notable, not for the magnitude (because equities have had a lot worse times in the last 15 months, what with Covid panic and so on) but because this was the worst week in 4 months.

That probably says more about how resilient equities have been since then.

What is interesting is how unaffected the tech shares were.

Remember it was the reflation trade that has been driving markets higher in the past few months.

So, any unwinding of this approach would likely NOT hit the tech shares, as they had not benefitted from it in the first place.

UK shares were hit hard due to the resource sector coming under pressure.

Miners were particularly hard hit whilst oils escaped from the worst of it.

EURUSD -2.46 -2.03% GBPUSD -3.14 -2.22% USDJPY +0.55 +0.5%

Not surprisingly the USD got a very big lift from the Fed’s updated guidance.

Rising US interest rates will provide USD holders with a better return.

It’s only marginal but that’s the way the forex markets have been working where rates have been crushed to zero across the developed world.

The Dollar Index had its best week since April last year, as the EURO and GBP fell sharply.

Ironically, economists expect the MPC to raise rates by this time next year here in the UK, but that had little impact in this general USD rally.

Gold -114 -6% UK OIL +0.67 +0.9% US OIL +0.63 +0.9%

Bitcoin -1,980 -5.37%

Reports over the past 10 days said that gold would benefit from the increasing threat of inflation.

So, why did gold fall 6% last week? That’s its largest weekly fall since March last year.

Well, as I have said on many occasions the only factor that will cause gold to rally is a continued fall in the USD. Well, that had been happening, gradually.

But not anymore as we have just been discussing.

Clearly inflation is NOT currently the driver in Gold – it’s the US Dollar… and has been all year.

Remember, a strong US Dollar is not good for USD priced commodities, in general.

However, oil did not suffer from the strong USD as demand remains strong and growing in the post pandemic economic recovery.

Some analysts are forecasting a spike in prices to $100 per barrel. Time to sell, I hear you say!

Bitcoin struggles as China bears down on Bitcoin mining and bans use of crypto as a medium of exchange.

Data / events for the week ahead

A busy week with manufacturing and services data plus the MPC policy meeting

Monday

EU ECB’s Lagarde testify at a virtual hearing before the European Parliament Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee. EUR and EU equities sensitive.

Tuesday

US Chairman of Federal Reserve testifies on the Fed’s emergency lending programs and current policies before the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis

Wednesday

EU, UK and US Flash readings on manufacturing and services sectors across most of the developed world. Still running hot? Markets will be keen to know.

US Oil inventories. Tight market still.

Thursday

UK MPC – key meeting as inflation picks up and MPC ponders changing guidance, similar to US. Watch Sterling and UK equities.

US Final of three GDP readings. A hot Q1 followed up by an even hotter Q2 - probably??

Friday

US Revised UoM consumer sentiment. Still solid but a more concerted fall in equities could dent sentiment in the months to come.

OK, so let’s see how the week unfolds.

I’ll be back in touch with more news and views on trading the markets…

I hope you had a great weekend. let’s check in with what’s been going on in the markets… and what’s in store for this week. Markets react to Fed ‘guidance’ change Following the slide in US equities on Friday, global markets were lower overnight… The risk-off move was quite marked last week, although we have seen a noticeable rebound off the lows in the overnight futures markets. But it’s clear that traders remain nervous. Financial markets continue to reverberate to the news from the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting last week… and the prospect of rising interest rates down the line. In case you weren’t aware… The Fed communicates its intentions to the financial markets using terms referred to as guidance. This states what the Fed’s...

Shorting Cryptos for some major Gains

A quick video to demonstrate that buying Cryptos isn’t the only game in town. Plenty of profit can be made from shorting too, as Adrian explains in this video, reviewing 15 major cryptos and the opportunities over the last few days.

A quick video to demonstrate that buying Cryptos isn’t the only game in town. Plenty of profit can be made from shorting too, as Adrian explains in this video, reviewing 15 major cryptos and the opportunities over the last few days....

Market News - Week Commencing 7th June

Monday 7^th June 2021 – All eyes on Inflation

Stock markets are on the defensive side overnight following a near record close on US equities

On Friday, the Dow came within 1% of its 35,091 all-time high set on 10^th May.

And the broader S&P500 came just 5 points (0.1%) shy of its record.

For now, investors are bullish about the outlook for the world’s largest economy... and about how the US central bank (the Fed) will support markets. Will that change? We’ll have to wait and see what unfolds this week…

It’s likely that this week’s US inflation report will be keenly anticipated.

That might put a dampener on the markets until it is released this Thursday.

Over in the commodity markets, the oil price was weaker overnight.

After a strong week last week for US crude (+5.4%), it pulled back around one dollar (1.5%) on Sunday night.

Oil traders are waiting for talks this week between Iran and world powers about a nuclear deal that could release further crude oil supply to the markets in concluded positively.

Which way these talks go could bring some extra volatility into the oil space – great news for those of us who like to trade it.

Review of last week’s key action

FTSE +46 +0.67% DOW +227 +0.67% +26 +0.61% NASDQ +65 +0.48% DAX +173 +1.12% NIKKEI -776 -2.61%

US equities jumped Friday following a weaker than expected Non-Farm Payroll report.

Despite reporting 559K new jobs, the report was still a miss on the consensus among leading analysts of 645K jobs.

The conclusion, albeit likely temporary, was that this report made it less likely that the Fed (the US Central Bank) would be motivated to change guidance or reduce the $120 Bln monthly quantitative easing (QE) currently in place.

In other words, interest rates aren’t likely to rise anytime soon, and the Fed will keep supporting the markets.

That was enough to keep investors happy and buying stocks.

Stocks up, dollar down

There had been a view recently that the US economy was in danger of overheating (which might lead to the Fed tightening monetary policy).

But this notion has been quashed by the past two months’ weaker-than-forecast employment data.

This did not get anywhere near the One Million new jobs that some economists were expecting in April.

Other markets were also similarly affected.

Bonds enjoyed the same sentiment, with yield on the 10-year Treasury falling 7 basis points as prices rallied.

Not surprisingly, the US dollar (USD) fell back on the news.

That is because keeping current record low interest rates will not encourage investors into the USD.

Back in the stock markets, it’s not just US equities that have been on a run.

The Stoxx 600, the pan European Index, hit another record close Friday, as sentiment continues to go from strength to strength in the Eurozone

The German DAX also posted another record close.

EURUSD -0.25 -0.2% GBPUSD -0.3 -0.22% USDJPY -90.34 -90.3%

In the currency (forex) markets, the US Dollar recovered a little lost ground last week but remains close to its weakest level this year, albeit in a particularly tight range.

Sterling also trades within a tight range with both the USD and the Euro.

Growth estimates for the UK this year are one of the highest in the G7 and investors remain confident in UK plc.

Gold -13 -0.7% UK OIL +2.66 ++3.85% US OIL +2.70 +4.05% Bitcoin +1,178 +3.3%

In the commodity markets, oil hit a multi-year high last week as it tracks the fortunes of the stock market.

US oil touched $70 a barrel for the first time since October 2018.

Gold has been showing signs of running out of steam. Last week’s move was also helped along by a slight recovery in the US dollar.

With a weaker than expected employment report, will inflation be less of a worry?

Sadly not. Markets remain nervous about inflation, and quite rightly so.

We have had benign inflation for two decades or more so there is a generation of adults that have never known the destructive effects of persistently high inflation.

Not that this is what is expected but the media are highlighting daily the jump in prices.

Last Thursday the FT put out a piece on Global Food prices, which have jumped alarmingly over the past month.

In fact, food prices in May jumped 40%, which is the biggest jump since 2011.

The reasons are many but can be summed up by a post pandemic surge in demand.

This is especially the case in China which, according to the FT, has been buying up grains and soyabeans in huge quantities.

Data / events for the week ahead

A quiet week, as tends to be the case the week following US employment data.

The highlights this week are US inflation and ECB monthly policy meeting.

Monday

No significant data

Tuesday

Ditto

Wednesday

Canada interest rate decision. No change in rates expected from the Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) as Canada lags the US recovery.

Commodity surge will underpin the Canadian dollar although, like others, Canada crosses remain becalmed for now.

US Crude oil inventories. All eyes on Iran nuclear talks…

Thursday

Eurozone ECB monthly policy meeting. The Eurozone economy continues to improve as lockdown measures are eased across the bloc.

Unlikely there will be any change from the ECB. Inflation has jumped to 2% from 1.6% the previous month but, like other Central banks, the ECB expects this to be a temporary phenomenon and expects prices to ease back in July / August.

US CPI – inflation data. Another jump could unsettle markets. Expecting core prices to slip back to +0.4% monthly rise. This would still propel the year-on-year rate to 4.7% compared to 4.2% in April.

It’s the headlines that matter and markets will be sensitive to anything that overshoots this mark.

Friday

US University of Michigan consumer sentiment. Sentiment fell last month but is expected to rebound as inflation nerves settle down a little.

Good luck in the markets.

Monday 7th June 2021 – All eyes on Inflation Stock markets are on the defensive side overnight following a near record close on US equities On Friday, the Dow came within 1% of its 35,091 all-time high set on 10th May. And the broader S&P500 came just 5 points (0.1%) shy of its record. For now, investors are bullish about the outlook for the world’s largest economy... and about how the US central bank (the Fed) will support markets. Will that change? We’ll have to wait and see what unfolds this week… It’s likely that this week’s US inflation report will be keenly anticipated. That might put a dampener on the markets until it is...

Market News - Week Commencing 12th April

12-04-2021

Markets weaker overnight in Far East despite jump in Alibaba which rallied 5% following the $2.8Bln fine from Chinese regulators re anti competitive practices. Clearly the consensus for a greater fine and this now puts the inquiry to bed.

US markets may be given a further boost today following the airing of an interview with Jay Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve. Powell described the US economy as being at an inflection point, with growth and new jobs about to accelerate. However he warned that new hot spots of covid infection could impede the recovery which underlined the importance of the vaccine roll out.

The hope is that the vaccination program will break the link between infections and hospitalisations whilst slowing the spread of the disease as evidence emerges that what is happening here in the UK.

Review

FTSE +178 +2.65%

DOW +647 +1.95%

S&P +109 +2.71% N

ASDQ +420 +3.11%

DAX +127 +0.84%

NIKKEI -86 -0.3%

Equity markets had another positive week, hitting record highs in US indices and the pan European Stoxx index.

Investors remain positive about the medium term outlook, looking past the end of the pandemic.

Friday was tougher for US markets as bond yields started to rise again

following the announcement of the regular upcoming auction of bonds.

Another concern for US markets is complacency and the overall level of optimism – any shift here could cause a set back in equities. Maybe Biden’s tax plans might be one of the possible causes.

UK markets had a strong week as the FTSE100 hit its highs for the year. Cyclical stocks and the fall in Sterling helped push the index higher.

Followers of UK plc will know the FTSE250, a better barometer of the health of the UK economy, has been nudging all time highs for the past week – rallying 3.5% last week - breaking the all time high from late December 2019.

EURUSD +1.37 +1.16% GBPUSD -1.16 -0.84% USDJPY -1.03 -0.93%

The US Dollar had showed signs of a turn down just before Easter. This move accelerated last week as traders reacted to the soothing words of the Federal Reserve following release of minutes from previous meeting.

Yields on US treasuries had backed down also in response but the mood altered Friday with a rise in yields again….Hence the bounce on Friday in the USD.

Gold +9 +0.52% UK OIL -1.61 -2.5% US OIL -1.89 -3.08%

Gold has had a good run, helped in part by the fall in the US Dollar over the past week or so. But like the US Dollar, Gold is showing signs of a pullback. Although it is worth noting that Gold did manage a higher high last week so the technical don’t look too bad.

It all depends on the US Dollar in the medium term.

Oil is becalmed for now following the reassessment of demand in the medium-term which caused the sell-off Mid-March.

Data / events

A busier week for data and events in this full week following the Easter break.

US banks will be in the spotlight with reports from JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup; Wells Fargo; Goldman Sachs.

Banks have been feasting on ideal conditions for investment banking deals. Expectations will be high so the outcome depends on how well these banks can match / beat forecasts.

For the UK, more normal life resumes today with further easing of the lockdown measures as non-essential shops and other businesses open.

Oh and pubs can serve drinks outside. To highlight the desperation that clearly many of us have been feeling, a pub in Sheffield opened its garden last night and was packed (with no spare tables). Midnight in Sheffield at below zero degrees temperature – what’s there not to like?

Boris Johnson reminds us all to be responsible – I wonder how many will listen to that advice?

Monday

US                               Jay Powell speaking about the economy on 60 Minutes program. Can effect markets – with sensitivity towards bond yields and tax rise implications.

US                               Not something we would ever highlight but results of 10- year bond auction announced. Further stress on yields?

Tuesday

US                               CPI - Consumer Price Index. Still remaining in check. Any uptick will likely be seized up by bond traders and then equity traders!

Another bounce as US consumers enjoy the $1,400 windfall via the fiscal aid package provided by the Biden administration.

Wednesday

NZ                               RBNZ monthly policy meeting. No change from the NZ central. Bank likely follow on from last month’s comments that global and domestic economic conditions were not changing enough to warrant a change in monetary policy.

Eurozone                  ECB President Lagarde due to speak at Reuters hosted event. Not sure of topic but Lagarde tends to tread a careful line with comments relating to economic policy.

US                               Not be outdone, Powell is speaking again. This time at the Economic Club of Washington. Again any comments on monetary policy will tend to be seized upon.

Thursday

US                               Retail sales. 4.7% expected – a huge jump as US consumers enjoy the $1,400 windfall via the fiscal aid package provided by the Biden administration.

US                               Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. A pull back from March’s

strong reading.

Friday

US                               Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment reading. Climbing back to pre-pandemic days.

12-04-2021 Markets weaker overnight in Far East despite jump in Alibaba which rallied 5% following the $2.8Bln fine from Chinese regulators re anti competitive practices. Clearly the consensus for a greater fine and this now puts the inquiry to bed. US markets may be given a further boost today following the airing of an interview with Jay Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve. Powell described the US economy as being at an inflection point, with growth and new jobs about to accelerate. However he warned that new hot spots of covid infection could impede the recovery which underlined the importance of the vaccine roll out. The hope is that the vaccination program will break the link between infections and hospitalisations whilst slowing the spread of...

Live Trading for a big winner on Gold

People are often asking me to call a live trade in our free introductory events, and whilst that isn’t the purpose of these screenshare sessions, it is something that I like to do from time to time.

This week, I was teaching the merits of the 4-hour timeframe, which I consider extremely underrated by many home traders.

During the workshop, I also explained some of the details for my 4-hour chart strategy called S4. It is looking at turning points that are confirmed by strong trends.

I ran the Trendsignal scanning tool which identified Gold as an upcoming opportunity that would be triggering in the next few minutes.

The trade was confirmed at 2pm on Tuesday, and has since gone on to fall over 200 points. Please see the chart below:

This is a great example of a Short trade, inline with the dominant trends of the market.

Looking at the Annotations on the chart, we can see the “Sell trade” was inline with a down trend on the Daily (DT) and Weekly (WT) timeframes, a descending chart pattern (CP) and the intermediate trend (orange line).

It was showing all the hallmarks of a strong continuance of an established downtrend. And here we are now, some 200 points lower.

This is a great trade, but it wasn’t the only popular market to trigger an opportunity that day.

This chart on EUR/USD shows another short opportunity, triggering at 6pm. Again, this reversal and turn lower is supported by a down trend on the Weekly timeframe and the intermediate trend too. In addition, the RED arrow gives a clear marker for some of our favourite 4-hour chart opportunities, which works as a great confidence builder for new traders.

Yes, this hasn’t moved to the same extent as Gold, but with a tighter stop, the potential gain is arguably even more attractive.

What is S4

The S4 strategy is a part of the Trendsignal plus training programme, and compliments the once-a-day strategies that are also available on the course. It can be applied to FX, Indices and Commodities to help identify Long and Short opportunities, with a typical trade duration of 4 hours to 3 days – ideal for a second income and those with limited time to analyse charts.

The Trendsignal Plus Course is available now for purchase and includes strategies, scanning tools, comprehensive training and live coaching. Call +44 (0)1234 757553 if you are interested in enrolling.

Happy trading

Adrian Buthee
Head of Trading

People are often asking me to call a live trade in our free introductory events, and whilst that isn’t the purpose of these screenshare sessions, it is something that I like to do from time to time. This week, I was teaching the merits of the 4-hour timeframe, which I consider extremely underrated by many home traders. During the workshop, I also explained some of the details for my 4-hour chart strategy called S4. It is looking at turning points that are confirmed by strong trends. I ran the Trendsignal scanning tool which identified Gold as an upcoming opportunity that would be triggering in the next few minutes. The trade was confirmed at 2pm on Tuesday, and has since gone on to fall over 200 points. Please see the chart below: This is a great example of a Short trade, inline with the dominant trends of the market. Looking at...

Gold and Oil making big moves for big profits

I just had to do a video on the recent moves on Gold and Oil.

You know, we are always asked about whether we trade commodities.

And whilst the answer is yes, it is important to know they move faster than FX, which means wider stops and typically smaller stakes.

That said, when they move, they really move and can pick up some significant moves.

For example, the most recent Sniper trades have picked up moves so far of 380 points on UKOil (Brent Crude Oil) and 520 points on Gold.

And these trades have only been open for a max 5 days.

And the strategy – which I’ll be telling you about in this free session – takes as little as 20 minutes a day, following a simple set of rules.

See it and learn how to use it in this free online session.

Look, I am not expecting every trade to move that much, and I could argue that these trades have overshot their typical objective, but certainly in the case of UKOil, there are some exceptionally strong trending markets right now, and our Accelerator Snipers are picking up plenty of BIG movers.

In fact, when I compress the chart, you can see the most recent Sniper trades over the past few months, starting with a +500 cent fall in October, followed by 5 Buy Snipers (notice the Red and Green rim to the Disks automatically printed on the chart).

If that sounds like something you’d like to check out...

Make sure you’re at this free live online event.

Yes, the 4^th buy is a loser (unless you were quick to take profit since it only rose 44 cents after the buy) but the others are big, stonking +400 point moves, barely showing any hint of a pull back or stop-out.

Gold has been similarly profitable.

Again, you can see the “Grade A” trades covering the past few months.

Yes, Gold has been rather more sideways over that time than the rampant uptrend on UKOil, but it hasn’t stopped it picking up 5 +150 point winners.

And you have to remember what this strategy is for…

It ISN’T looking for 1000 point moves.

We are looking for a typical hold of 2-3 days.

And with that, we have tight stop losses and a realistic view on targets.

I mean, whilst it would be lovely, we aren’t so likely to see a 1000 pip moves in 3 days. But, 100 – 150 points on GOLD??

Absolutely.

Yes, we can learn to hold on and ride the bigger moves, but as a new trader, the joy of this strategy is being able to spot the next burst of momentum for yourself.

Easy to identify, quick to release and away we go.

As explained in the video, some exceptional trades here, actionable even by a new trader… if you have the right technology.

Happy trading

P.S. These sessions are free – and they’re popular with our readers. That means that they book up quickly.

So, to make sure of a place, reserve it NOW.

Choose which session you’d like and book it here.

I just had to do a video on the recent moves on Gold and Oil. You know, we are always asked about whether we trade commodities. And whilst the answer is yes, it is important to know they move faster than FX, which means wider stops and typically smaller stakes. That said, when they move, they really move and can pick up some significant moves. For example, the most recent Sniper trades have picked up moves so far of 380 points on UKOil (Brent Crude Oil) and 520 points on Gold. And these trades have only been open for a max 5 days. And the strategy – which I’ll be telling you about in this free session – takes as little as 20 minutes a day, following a simple set of rules. See it and learn how to use it in...

10 wins in a row for EURUSD

I had to give an update on EURUSD for the D1 Accelerator strategy which continues to pick up fantasitic gains for traders. Yesterday we hit target for the 10th winning trade in a row since October. Nice bite size winners, all hitting target within 3 days. And that’s the point of the strategy. And at approx. 40 pips win per trade, that’s 400 pips on just this one market.

I had to give an update on EURUSD for the D1 Accelerator strategy which continues to pick up fantasitic gains for traders. Yesterday we hit target for the 10th winning trade in a row since October. Nice bite size winners, all hitting target within 3 days. And that’s the point of the strategy. And at approx. 40 pips win per trade, that’s 400 pips on just this one market....

Fantastic Continuation Trades on the Dax for +50 points profit

Very strong morning on the Dax, all starting from a pre-market buy at 7:04 – too early for trading really, but it sets the scene for an extremely strong session, after the market opens. Another buy at 7.44 before we hit our Trade of the Day at 9:00am. A text book continuation trade, hitting the trailing stop for a 3:1 profit of approx. 50 points. With a 1% risk, that’s a potential 3% profit in 40 minutes.

Very strong morning on the Dax, all starting from a pre-market buy at 7:04 – too early for trading really, but it sets the scene for an extremely strong session, after the market opens. Another buy at 7.44 before we hit our Trade of the Day at 9:00am. A text book continuation trade, hitting the trailing stop for a 3:1 profit of approx. 50 points. With a 1% risk, that’s a potential 3% profit in 40 minutes....

Picking up over 1600 points within 3 days.

The Stock indices continue to move to positive territory as we see the Dax move to record highs this week. All in all, a very strong risk-on week for the stock market and US Dollar weakness, and Trendsignal traders saw that from the opportunities created. Adrian explains this latest bacth of Stock index trades in today’s video; looking at buy trades on the FTSE100, GER30, US30 and SPK500 indices, all rallying considerably over the following 2-3 days after the Sniper signal was generated. A total movement of over 1600 points from a very clear rules based strategy.

The Stock indices continue to move to positive territory as we see the Dax move to record highs this week. All in all, a very strong risk-on week for the stock market and US Dollar weakness, and Trendsignal traders saw that from the opportunities created. Adrian explains this latest bacth of Stock index trades in today’s video; looking at buy trades on the FTSE100, GER30, US30 and SPK500 indices, all rallying considerably over the following 2-3 days after the Sniper signal was generated. A total movement of over 1600 points from a very clear rules based strategy....

See all

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Learn to trade using simple trading strategies | Trendsignal

About Trendsignal

Why choose us?

FREEDOM

SIMPLICITY

SUCCESS

TAILORED

SUPPORT

What our clients say?

Upcoming Webinars

Forex Trading Strategies • Price Action Trading & Market Analysis

Market News – Stock markets recover after tough September Dear Reader, Equity markets may have stemmed the big declines seen at the end of September. The US Dow Jones added 925 points from the low last week to Friday’s close.

In a nutshell, no rate rises even if inflation remains stubbornly high for a protracted period.

Review

FTSE +20 +0.28% DOW +374 +1.08% S&P +85 +1.96% NASDQ +410 +2.85%

EURUSD -0.34 -0.28% GBPUSD -0.13 -0.1% USDJPY +0.47 +0.42%

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

Friday

Saturday

Market News - Week Commencing 28th June Dear Fellow Trader, I hope you had a great weekend. In a moment, let’s check in with what’s been going on in the markets… and what’s in store for this week.

Monday 7th June 2021 – All eyes on Inflation

12-04-2021

Review

EURUSD +1.37 +1.16% GBPUSD -1.16 -0.84% USDJPY -1.03 -0.93%

Gold +9 +0.52% UK OIL -1.61 -2.5% US OIL -1.89 -3.08%

Data / events

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

Friday

FREEDOM

SIMPLICITY

SUCCESS

TAILORED

SUPPORT

SIMPLE TRADING STRATEGIES THAT WORK!

BOOK A FREE PLACE

Monday 7^th June 2021 – All eyes on Inflation